Transnistria, concerns in Brussels after Moldova’s request to Moscow for protection

Brussels – It had been almost a year since Transnistria disappeared from the radar of the European Union’s major concerns about Russian destabilization in Eastern Europe, but the most restless of the separatist regions on the European continent has returned forcefully to the table of the hottest dossiers in recent hours. “We are closely monitoring the development of the situation in the Republic of Moldova and the separatist territory of Transnistria,” European External Action Service (EEAS) spokesman Peter Stano disclosed today (Feb. 29), commenting on the request of the authorities of the self-proclaimed pro-Russian republic for “protection” in Moscow from the government of Chisinau: “We are in constant and close contact with the authorities of the Republic of Moldova and trust that they will do everything possible to handle the situation.”

The news of the appeal that came from Tiraspol just over 24 hours ago is one of the low points in relations between Chișinău and the region’s separatists, which is eerily reminiscent of what happened in the days leading up to Ukraine’s Feb. 24, 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Russia’s recognition of the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk republics in Ukraine’s Donbas. The Special Congress of Transnistria–whose authority is not internationally recognized–adopted a resolution yesterday (Feb. 28) in which it will ask the Council of the Russian Federation and the State Duma “to implement measures to protect Transnistria in the face of increasing pressure” from Moldova, justifying the request on the grounds that “more than 220,000 Russian citizens are permanently present” on the territory of the separatist region and based on “Russia’s positive peacekeeping experience and guarantor and mediator status in the negotiation process” for independence from Chișinău.

Appeals for calm are being made in Brussels, with EEAS spokesman Stano recalling how “stability in this region is in everyone’s interest, first and foremost the people,” while trying to push for “constructive dialogue” between the two sides: “The European Union continues to support a peaceful and comprehensive solution in Transnistria; this is a frozen conflict” on Moldovan territory “and that is why we are addressing it on the basis of respect for Moldova’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,” Stano concluded. But while the Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, and her Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, in Tirana discussed Moscow’s latest attempts to destabilize the region and “mutual support” on their respective paths to EU membership (Moldova and Ukraine both received the green light for EU accession negotiations at the December 2023 European Council), both the State Duma and the Russian Foreign Ministry have confirmed that “the protection of our compatriots in Transnistria is a priority” and that Tiraspol’s request will be evaluated “as soon as it is officially received.”

Tensions in the Transnistria region

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The Russian-speaking majority Moldovan region bordering Ukraine to the east separated unilaterally from Moldova following the collapse of the Soviet Union. During the 1992 civil war, the separatists were supported by Russian military intervention before the situation crystallized, and the 2006 referendum (not recognized by the international community) enshrined for the first time the willingness to be annexed by Russia. Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, tensions have increased in the Republic of Moldova, with attacks in Tiraspol and along the border with Ukraine (early signs of an attempt to find a pretext for possible armed intervention). The early months of 2023 saw increasing acts of overt provocation by Moscow, including missiles crossing the Moldovian airspace in the direction of Ukrainian territory.

On Feb. 9 last year, Ukrainian President Zelensky first informed the 27 EU leaders of the Kremlin’s plan to “break the democratic order and establish control” by Russia in Moldova. Only a few days later, Moldovan President Sandu had confirmed Moscow’s attempt at “a change of power in Chișinău” through “violent actions disguised as protests by the so-called opposition,” also involving “foreign nationals.” The finger was pointed at the Movement for the People, which brings together several pro-Russian groups such as Șor, the party of Ilan Shor, the Moldovan oligarch sanctioned in October 2022 by the United States for his closeness to the Russian government and now in exile in Israel to protect himself from a $1 billion bank theft.

On the political level, the situation worsened with the surprise resignation on Feb. 10 last year by the pro-Europeanist premier Natalia Gavrilița. Her successor, Dorin Recean, immediately reassured Western partners about the line of continuity in the policies and alliances of Moldova, a country that formally applied to join the EU only one week after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. After the further alert launched in Brussels by Moldova’s Interior Minister, Ana Revenco, about “the Republic of Moldova being on Moscow’s path to break stability and union in Europe,” seven people linked to the Kremlin have been arrested during Șor-led anti-government protests, which among other things intimated the resignation of President Sandu. From Apr. 24, 2023, the civil partnership mission in Moldova (EUPM Moldova) was established with the stated goal of strengthening the country’s security against crises and hybrid threats: “We are stepping up EU support to protect the security, territorial integrity, and sovereignty” of Chișinău in the face of “the current difficult circumstances,” had explained the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell.