Von der Leyen may not be the solution for the next legislature

As the days pass, more certainties that seemed to have been consolidated over the past months begin to show some cracks. The upcoming European elections and the renewals of the institutional leadership that will follow will be a much more uncertain phase than the well-informed (Brussels, like all ‘places of politics’ in the world, at least the democratic ones, thrives on such predictions), already six months ago took for granted with the confirmation of Ursula von der Leyen as head of the European Executive.

I also shared the expectation, I have to admit. She has been a good president (on a direct scale between good, non-existent, and bad) because the composition of the European Council is what it is, and it is up to its members to indicate the candidate to Parliament; because the outcome of European elections will not result in any big surprise; and because there are no other credible political candidates out there. But also because she ran for office on time, at least so we wrote after her State of the Union address on September 13 that was clearly a programmatic speech for the next five-year period, which she wanted to lead.

Six months later, even though her party, the EPP, sluggishly voted for her in Bucharest but still voted for her, even though the European Socialists did a lot of digging to find the least well-known candidate at the continental level and from a country of half a million people, Luxembourg, and, therefore, not to move anything with a European resonance electorally, not even where he is known, even though the Liberals have three candidates, so really none, and the Greens have two, by a strange tradition of gender equality, despite all this, since the day of the election in Bucharest on March 7, more and more well-informed people have been shelling out doubts and some even alternative names to von der Leyen. Names that, of course, are not among the official candidates.

And yet the von der Leyen candidate and President is not in an easy position. Not least because the candidate has decided to support a program that goes against everything the President has done; anything she says about the future based on the EPP program will go against what the Commission has done these past five years. She is running against her record; just look at the spins on agriculture and migrants. And it will be easy for other candidates and parties to attack her because it is an election campaign. Everyone, rightly so, does what’s in their interest.

It will be a very difficult few months, and probably also after elections because we will have a Council and a Parliament with very different majorities (for example, the Socialists will not be as diminished among the MPs as they are among the heads of government). It would take strong leaders to lead in a difficult period because it will be difficult to manage resistance to Russia and to live in a Council and Parliament where, though certainly in a  minority position, eurosceptic and sovereignist forces will be stronger than today.

It would take a moment of reflection and analysis, to figure out how to re-establish a project and consensus that, while being able to react beyond all expectations in times of crisis, struggles to structure itself solidly to face a complex future. Just think how manageable a 35-member Union would be with the instruments of government available today, when, even now, the need to mediate with Hungary to lift its veto on the special fund for Ukraine has led to a Parliament citing the Commission in the Court of Justice for lavishing money on Budapest too easily. We cannot risk a continued brawl; we need strong leadership in institutions and governments.

We’re in bad shape in terms of governments, lacking great personalities, the strong relationship, which is necessary for everyone, between France and Germany is at an all-time low, the German government is basically in the hands of a liberal party that is heading toward zero in the polls and is floundering by stiffening in the wake of the so-called “hawks” of Nordic sobriety and effectively preventing the government from governing.

Back to the original theme, if not von der Leyen, who? It is a big problem because, at the moment, there are no alternatives, in the sense that there are no personalities in sight to challenge her candidacy. Of course, there is the eternal name of Mario Draghi, who finds some political sympathy just about everywhere, but his problem is that he has no party. For the Commission race, he would really be a last resort (no offense). He would be the man to save everyone from a situation with no other way out, assuming we can convince the Italian government to sign his candidacy. Nothing can be done without the green light from Giorgia Meloni, leader of the only party that opposed the Draghi government. The President is the Commissioner appointed by a country; it cannot be others who choose for Rome. At the Council, things are a bit different as governments choose from among fellow former prime ministers, and perhaps there, confronted with a broad will among colleagues, Meloni might even give in, and it would not hurt for her to do so. But here again: what political party does Draghi represent? What balance would he ensure on the delicate equilibrium of European appointments?

Perhaps a moment of reasonableness after the electoral excesses might be all that is needed; a moment to put the problems of farmers on the back burner and focus on the survival of the Union, which means the survival of individual states (and also of farmers). A time when serious work is being done to strengthen Europe in terms of defense, because Trump or no Trump, the U.S. has been asking us this for a long time; the rules of the Banking Union are being completed; serious work is being put on the table to prepare for the reform of the functioning of the Union; a way to deal with the lack of labor supply and therefore migration is being found; and an industrial policy for the EU that makes sense for everyone is continuing to be defined.

Of course, it is a huge program, but in fact vital. If Draghi could be the answer, it would be welcome, and Italy would look great supporting him, but it would not be the ultimate answer. In the next five years, the Europe of the future has to be built.