Exit polls from the Netherlands slow the far-right landslide. Timmermans’ center-left in the lead

Brussels – As always, exit polls are to be taken with kid gloves, because the official results could then differ markedly. But early indications from the Netherlands on yesterday’s (June 6) vote in the European elections could be an almost unhoped-for preview for the opposition to the imminent right-wing government in the EU member country. According to the Ipsos exit poll, the far-right Euroskeptic party PVV (Party for Freedom) of Geert Wilders and the Labor Party-Green Left GroenLinks (PvdA/Gl) coalition led by former EU Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans tied at the top of voter preferences and would compete for the title of the top national force. However, we will have to wait until Sunday evening (June 9) for final results, when voting operations in all the 27 Member States finish.

On the eve of the vote in the first EU member country called to the polls in these European elections, the far-right party was expected to win a third of the 31 MEPs allotted to the Netherlands. If early unofficial indications are confirmed, the PVV will get seven (as opposed to one in the 2019 European elections), and it will almost certainly become the largest Dutch delegation in the European Parliament. In the meantime, the joint PvdA/Gl list, which is expected to stand at eight MEPs and undermine the PVV as the largest national political force, will see its elected members split into two groups when the European Parliament takes office: the PvdA is a member of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group, while GroenLinks belongs to the Greens/Ale group. Voter turnout stands just above 46 percent, the best figure since the 1989 European elections.

Exit polls in the Netherlands also show a possible retreat of the outgoing premier Mark Rutte‘s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) liberals -from five to four seats – as well as for the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) – from four to three – in line with the outcome of the legislative vote in the fall of 2023.  The liberals of Democraten 66, are expected to see a slight rebound – from two to three seats. The feat of the County Civic Movement (populist party advocating farmers’ interests), with two seats, and the center-right New Social Contract, with one, are confirmed: both parties forming the new executive in The Hague with the far-right PVV and the liberals of the VVD could enter the European Parliament for the first time, banking on joining the center-right grouping of the European People’s Party (EPP) but potentially clashing with fellow Christian Democrats. Also of note is the possible entry of an MEP from the European federalist party Volt and the reappointment of an elected member for both the Party for the Animals (PvdD) and the Calvinist conservatives of the Reformed Political Party (Sgp).

In addition to the final numbers on the Dutch delegations to the European Parliament, when the official results come out on Sunday evening, the focus will be above all on the political strength gained by the far-right PvP, which will go on to swell the ranks of Identity and Democracy (ID) or a single right-wing formation with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). At the close of the election campaign, Wilders opened to the proposal from the de facto leader of France’s far-right Rassemblement National, Marine Le Pen, to the Italian Premier and President of the ECR Party, Giorgia Meloni: “I have a lot of respect for both Salvini [leader of the League, member of the Id Group, ed] and Meloni. If it were possible to form a larger group, I would be thrilled to join them.” A mega-group in the EU Parliament with Rassemblement National, Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, Vox, Law and Justice, and Fidesz (difficult to achieve at the moment) could leave room for a possible new parliamentary line-up even more shifted to the far right.