Eurostat: “From 2026, the EU population in decline, and immigration won’t help anymore”

Brussels – A higher number of deaths than new births, few children, and too many people leaving their countries, and, up to a certain point, are being replaced with immigrants. It is not usually the job of statistics to make predictions. Yet, in Luxembourg, they sound the alarm: according to the baseline projections of Eurostat, “the population of the EU will grow, albeit slowly, up until the year 2026 (453.3 million inhabitants), after which it is projected to fall back to 419.5 million by 2100.”  The slow decline will begin in less than two years.

A snapshot of the trend in Europe and Italy, reflecting the trend seen in the past decade of a demographic decline that seems unstoppable. The summary given by Eurostat in the 2024 edition of Key Figures on Europe is concentrated in a small paragraph, just enough to draw attention to an issue that cuts across several dimensions.

First, the overall figure: between January 1, 2013, and January 1, 2023, the population of the EU increased by 7.5 million (or 1.7 percent), with net inward migration “the driving factor behind this growth. The first aspect regards reception and integration. Without foreigners, Europeans would be even less than a decade ago. A figure with strong political significance, especially for those forces that make rejecting migrants their main selling point. 

Still, the last decade has seen a natural decrease in population numbers (more deaths than births). This is the second element: Europeans do not have children. In addition, there is a ‘brain drain,’ or those who, for economic reasons, are forced to seek their fortunes elsewhere. The combination of these two factors is the strongest in some parts. According to the report, a natural decrease in the number of inhabitants (more deaths than births) in Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia, Latvia, Poland, and Romania was reinforced by net outward migration (more people emigrating than immigrants).

IImmigrants, therefore, only partially make up for the population decline, as seen in the case of other member states. Over the past decade, “There was also an overall decline in the populations of Italy, Lithuania, Hungary, and Portugal, despite net inward migration,” according to the Eurostat document. The report mentions 10 EU member states out of 27 with population declines. Then there is Slovakia, the only member state with ‘zero balance’ — or an unchanged population between 2013 and 2023.

Immediate action is needed because Europeans will disappear starting in 2026, just around the corner. The collection of data made available to governments is a call to put their hands on the political agenda. The Commission’s strategy for targeted labor migration may not be enough. We need more Europeans, who will become extinct.