European 2024 elections, concerns about rising cost of living drove voters to polls

Brussels – Probably not a surprise at all, given the times we are going through, but if nothing else, it is now an officially certified fact: the most important issues for voters who voted in the last European elections were the cost of living and the economic situation. At the aggregate level, voter turnout remained stable, but of course, trends vary widely across states: in Italy, for example, it fell by more than six per cent compared to 2019. The numbers from the latest Eurobarometer shed some light on the dynamics of the vote last June and paint a picture for Italy that sometimes deviates even significantly from the Twenty-seven average.

Let’s start with the turnout: over the weekend of June 6—9, 50.74 per cent of eligible voters in the EU (more than 350 million) went through the trouble of going to the polls , a figure substantially in line with that of five years ago, 50.66. The increase in turnout in 2019 was the first-ever since direct EU Parliament elections have existed (1979), which historically had seen fewer and fewer citizens participating.

The imperceptible improvement in turnout between the 2019 and this year’s elections was due, as determined by Eurobarometer data number 101.5, to a rise in turnout in 16 member countries, while the other 11 saw a decline. In Italy, turnout fell by 6.19 per cent in five years, from 54.4 to 48.31 per cent, a continuous negative trend since 2004. At the European level, 53 per cent of males and 50 per cent of females voted (an increase of one per cent in both cases), while in Italy, these figures dropped to 49 and 47 per cent, respectively.

Perhaps the most counterintuitive figure is that relating to demographic groups. Voting the most were electors aged 55 and older: 58 per cent at the EU level (up four per cent from 2019 and the only one to have risen) and 50 per cent in Italy. In contrast, the group with the steepest decline in participation is the youngest age group (between 15 and 24): only 36 per cent went to the polls at the aggregate level (down six per cent from 2019), a figure that stands at 45 per cent in Italy (still proving to be the least participatory age group). Yet, according to the Eurobarometer, it would seem that young people are the most optimistic about the future of the Union: 79 per cent of them consider themselves confident, compared to 66 per cent of over-55s.

Regarding the issues that moved voters, at the aggregate level, we find the skyrocketing cost of living at the top. (the first concern for 42 per cent of respondents), followed by considerations related to the economic situation (41 out of 100 voters). Among Italians, the priorities are the same, although in reverse order: 51 per cent indicated the economic situation and 48 per cent indicated inflation. In the Twenty-Seven, on average, the other concerns are the international situation (37 per cent), the health of democracy and the rule of law (32 per cent), and finally, tied, climate, security and migration (28 per cent). The latter issue topped the list only in Germany (indicated by 44 out of a hundred respondents), while in Italy—where, too, anti-migrant rhetoric never stops hammering—it was reported by less than one in five voters (19 per cent).

Finally, the percentage of voters across the Union who voted having mainly European issues in mind increased (47 per cent, four points higher than in 2019), while the percentage of those who voted primarily focusing on national issues remained stable (42 respondents per 100). The most positive image of the EU was recorded in Portugal (76 per cent) and Ireland (71 per cent), while those with the most negative perceptions were Austria, France, and Greece (in the first two, 27 per cent of respondents have a positive image of the Union, in the last 24 per cent).

And on the importance of one’s country’s membership in the EU, there is another unintuitive finding among Italian voters: of the 62 per cent who rate national membership in the European club positively, the smallest portion are those who politically place themselves in the centre – 47 per cent, compared to 67 per cent of those who consider themselves right-wingers and 74 per cent of those who vote left-wing. This is a curious dynamic, considering that both liberal-democratic lists—hinged around Azione, on the one hand, and +Europe and Italia Viva on the other—indicated a clear pro-European vocation in their names: “We are Europeans” and “United States of Europe.”