Moldova at a crossroads, the referendum can bring it into EU or leave it in Putin’s orbit

Brussels – Moldova is at a crossroads, choosing whether to remain in limbo as a country suspended between the European Union and Russian interests or follow the path to membership in the 12-star club. Sunday’s (Oct. 20) elections are not just a time to figure out who will lead the country, whether the outgoing president hunting for a new term, Maia Sandu, who is openly pro-EU or other leaders with different visions. A decision is also to be made on whether to amend the national constitution by including EU accession as a goal. The referendum takes on new geopolitical significance in light of the renewed clash between Russia and the Euro-Western bloc.

“Do you support amending the constitution with a view to the Republic of Moldova’s accession to the European Union?” is the question that will be asked of voters. A possible “yes” vote will make it binding, marking a historic moment in the republic’s life. This does not seem impossible, given the quorums expected in the country. A positive result is required to amend the constitution, with the participation of at least one-third of the voters. 

The latest available polls, which are being closely watched from Brussels, suggest that 69 per cent of eligible voters intend to take part in the vote, and 63 per cent of them intend to vote for EU membership. The pre-vote premises have already sent a clear message. 

More specifically, the preamble to the National Charter would be completed with two new paragraphs to “reconfirm the European identity of the people of the Republic of Moldova and the irreversibility of the European path” and to “declare integration into the European Union a strategic goal of the Republic of Moldova.”

The European Union fears Russian activity, particularly attempts to influence the vote through interference, counter-information and even corruption. A targeted operation was allegedly set up specifically to create support networks for the “no” campaign in exchange for money, with over $15 million sent from Russia to more than 130 thousand Moldovan citizens to vote against the twelve-star prospect. The operation is supposedly led by Ilan Shor, an entrepreneur in exile in Russia. 

“Russia has stepped up its activity to directly intervene in the vote,” denounces Peter Stano, spokesman for the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell: “It is up to the Moldovan people to decide where to go, whether to us or to embrace Russia, which wants to impose its imperialism to subjugate the country.”

Officially, the EU executive does not go into the secrecy of the ballot box. Still, it offers clear voting directions of no obvious consequence because Moldova is a country whose borders are not clear. The Transnistria self-proclaimed its independence from Moldova in 1990. The international community does not recognize what is an independent territory under Russian protection and control. Moscow still deploys a contingent of 1,500 soldiers here. To them and the Russian Defense Ministry, the Tiraspol authorities have asked for more protection from Moldova’s neighbours.

The electoral commission’s decision not to register Pobeda, a formation close to Ilan Shor and with pro-Russian positions, also impacts the vote. This move further heightens tensions over a vote that also becomes a referendum on Putin. For a moment, Moldova will be at the centre of the world. Whatever happens on Sunday, history in motion will propose new scenarios, arrangements, and grounds for tension and opposition.