A divided and diverse majority for a Commission with an uncertain future

For the first time, the European Parliament’s vote on a new Commission recorded fewer votes in favor than the numbers received by its president in the investiture vote. After the first vote in July for the president, Ursula von der Leyen and her party of affiliation, the European People’s Party, decided to open up to the right, appointing one of its members as executive vice president. In the final count, it lost 31 votes, resulting in a  “yes” percentage of 51.39 out of the 720 deputies, the lowest in history.

The political landscape of European governments does not reflect the numbers in Parliament; with a significant number of right-wing governments in the Union, the appointment of right-wing commissioners is inevitable, something that Italy has legitimately done. The decision, however, to give a representative of the right the title of “executive vice president” was a political choice, marking the profile of the Commission. It was a choice; it was not inevitable.

As a colleague reminded me today, von der Leyen likes emphasizing that “a majority is a majority,” even if only by one vote. Technically, that is true, but politically, every moment marks a step taken, a choice, a direction. This president and her party, which had good electoral success, chose to open to the right, losing votes.

There is a majority. The Commission will take office, but at what price? The members of the parties that decided to support this executive found themselves part of split groups, some more, some less, but divided nonetheless.

However, the wounds will remain; they will not heal during a single legislature. And the signals are open for interpretation. The message here is that the Union is losing its compass; it is neither at the center, nor the left, nor of the right, nor any other formulation in between. A Union that says it supports Ukraine against the Russian invasion but with political forces professing this in increasingly different ways and measures; a Union that on women’s and reproductive rights has increasingly different visions (and bans); a Union that in relations with Donald Trump’s United States is a bit happy and a bit scared; that in relations with China is no longer clear on where it stands; and even on small things like the stop on electric cars in 2035, it no longer has, in Parliament, a shared position.

In politics, it takes the courage to choose. This time, however, the president of the Commission chose with the vast majority of her party, after being appointed by the governments, to be confirmed in power while giving up having significant political backing. For sure, it is a good thing to have a Commission quickly. It allows for preparing for upcoming appointments on time. However, doing so while showing the World how capable one is of fracture in order to have free hands in leadership is not a show of strength but a desperate desire to stay in power.