What if Trump fails? A scenario worth studying

The whole world, and even the European Union, is trying to prepare for the scenarios that will arise when US President-elect Donald Trump fulfills his promises — electoral and new ones — which he makes practically every day.

What will happen if the next US president truly succeeds in ending the war in Ukraine? What new balance will emerge? In Palestine, he promised that hell would break out if hostages are not returned by his inauguration on January 20. What would that mean for Tel Aviv? Could his threats to reduce the contribution to NATO lead to European countries strengthening their autonomous defensive capabilities? If his unique economic theory that increasing tariffs would bolster the US economy works, how will the European Union respond?

The reactions to the very latest announcements of the possibility of invading Greenland and forcibly retaking control of the Panama Canal still have to be considered. Perhaps the geographers will start debating the proposed new name for the Gulf of Mexico, which, according to Trump, should be called the Gulf of America.
Some might smile ironically at all this. However, overall, Trump’s words are rightly taken seriously, and the debate is about what will happen next, what the economy, the World, and international politics will look like “after.” It is the right course of action. That’s the business of politics. One must avoid getting caught off guard.

What if Trump fails instead? It happened with Covid. The US had more deaths in those years than the total number of military casualties in all wars since 1945, according to some calculations.
If he fails to end Russia’s war in Ukraine? If Hamas does not release the hostages within 12 days? What if he sets out to conquer Greenland and freezing conditions block his army? What if the widespread tariff policy, as many economists predict, severely damages the US economy?

With less than two weeks to go before the inauguration, the feeling is that the next US president may be losing at least some of his bets. Trump’s purported friendship with Vladimir Putin (who, by the way, is no one’s friend ) is not currently leading toward significant steps forward in the peace process, at least in the time frame promised by Trump, again, before January 20. Developments will depend more on Russian economic and military difficulties than outside intervention.

In Israel, there is no talk of ending hostilities. The current government does not seem intent on slowing down its intervention. Some settlers want to expand the illegally occupied territories, extending to areas in southern Lebanon.

Trump shot very high, promising the impossible, which makes success difficult.

So, what would happen if Trump fails, at least in his public campaign promises? There could be four years of instability and jitters without significant changes in international politics. Internal US anger could erupt in the wake of pressure from those who would hold Trump accountable for their electoral investment (both those who gave money and those who only cast their votes).

Today, we do not know what might happen. However, it is opportune to reflect on this as well, not taking for granted that what Trump has announced will happen, and thus, on the effects of the possible failures of the next US president.