Brussels – Enlargement as an economic engine. A European Union of 36 states — the current 27 plus the nine candidates (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, and Ukraine) — can bring benefits estimated at between an 8 percent and 24 percent growth in Gross Domestic Product compared to current values. These are the estimates in the analysis produced by the European Parliament Study and Research Center, which tries to map the benefits of the entry of new countries.
The key theoretical assumption is that in 2035, all non-EU countries with candidate status will have completed the accession process. Therefore, the European Union will be an even larger bloc by that date. Based on this outlook, several scenarios open up, all of which are related to so-called ‘convergence,’ i.e., the higher economic growth rate expected among low-income countries than among high-income countries. In other words, much depends on the ability of the newcomers to catch up with the leading economies. Depending on the pace of growth and convergence, the benefit to EU GDP could range from a minimum expansion of 8 percent to a maximum expansion of 24 percent over current values.
In absolute terms, a perfectly successful enlargement could mean, according to Brussels estimates, an increase in wealth produced in the EU of $55,860 billion.
Critical raw materials as an engine of new growth
Among the potential economic benefits of effective enlargement are raw materials. Candidate countries have minerals to exploit to achieve shared economic benefits and help support the digital and green transitions. The study notes that Georgia, Serbia, and Ukraine hold “significant” copper reserves, essential for electrical wiring, renewable energy infrastructure, and telecommunications. The same three countries also have lithium, which is necessary to produce rechargeable batteries, and manganese, which is essential for steel production. Meanwhile, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro are key bauxite producers crucial to aluminum production.
Ukraine and its cyber defense potential
Potential benefits can also come from technological innovation in the defense sector, where Ukraine can play a leading role. “A notable area of Ukraine’s expertise is artificial intelligence,” the paper points out. The research shows that Ukraine ranks just behind Poland in scientific publications on artificial intelligence. Kyiv is home to more artificial intelligence start-ups than cities such as Frankfurt. Given the growing role of artificial intelligence in defense, “Ukraine’s advances in this field, reflected in both patents and start-up activity, could be very valuable to European security efforts.”
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
