White Paper on Defense identifies Russia and China as possible EU enemies

Brussels – Without a shadow of a doubt, Russia and then China are the potential enemies of the European Union. They are the big players on the eastern side of the world, and, as of now, they are declared enemies because this is how the White Paper on the future of defense defines them. It mentions them explicitly because of the role they played and, more importantly, the role they have yet to play.

“Russia is an existential threat to the Union,” reads the introduction to the document drafted in Brussels. “Given its history of invading its neighbors and its current expansionist policies, the need to deter from Russian armed aggression will remain even after a just and lasting peace agreement in Ukraine.” Views and considerations about the Kremlin are clear and explain how the EU intends to live from here on out, with a perpetual state of alert for a threat perceived as persistent but not isolated.

The Russian threat closely relates to the Chinese threat. “Even if a cease-fire is agreed in Ukraine, Russia will likely continue to scale up its war economy, supported by Belarus, China, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.” It is a new, more direct, frontal attack by the EU on the People’s Republic, already criticized for supporting Moscow. If, on the one hand, “a revanchist Russia is the immediate military threat to the EU,” on the other, the Beijing government “is steadily increasing” its production of military capabilities with the result that now China “possesses a first-rank military force with unprecedented maritime capabilities.”

The result of this Chinese military growth, the European Commission publicly acknowledges, is that “the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific is under pressure, affecting European security.” In short, the White Paper on the future of defense contradicts the expectations of EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who looked to China as a possible alternative to the United States under Donald Trump. Instead, judging by the document’s contents, the best hopes appear dead and buried. Not least because, according to the document, “China has become a main hybrid actor threatening the EU.” It means that Beijing can attack Europe without moving troops, using different techniques and methods other than military ones to weaken the twelve-star bloc.

 Of course, it is no mystery that the People’s Republic has important economic levers as it controls European ports, guaranteeing the Asian country a presence that threatens twelve-star security. However, the Chinese threat extends beyond Europe and becomes more global, and the EU puts it in black and white. “China is using its complete toolbox of economic, military and cyber measures to exert pressure on Taiwan but also on countries in the South China Sea.” The waters in the area are ‘choppy’ as Taiwan and Vietnam claim the Paracelsus Islands, controlled by Beijing since 1974, while the People’s Republic and the Philippines are disputing the Spratly Islands, which fall under Manila’s exclusive economic zone for the Chinese claims.

Essentially, China “is undermining regional stability,” warns the European Commission, which is concerned about the potential economic fallout. The South China Sea plays a significant commercial role, as it is at the center of some of the world’s busiest sea routes connecting China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan with the Indian Ocean. Also, the seabed of this maritime portion conceals essential oil and gas deposits, making control of the area a reason for confrontational access.