Brussels – Two days after the stinging defeat of government candidate Rafal Trzaskowski in the runoff against nationalist Karol Nawrocki, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk breaks his silence and announces a high-risk political move: he will ask for a vote of confidence in parliament to consolidate the fragile balance of his coalition. It is a response to what Tusk defined as “a crucial phase” for the country’s future after an election round that reshaped the institutional power relations in Warsaw.
In a televised statement last night (June 2), the PM said he wanted to demonstrate — domestically and at the European level — that his government “understands the seriousness of the moment but will not take any step back.” He promised an acceleration of the legislative agenda and confirmed the existence of a “contingency plan” to deal with the obstacle posed by President Nawrocki. “We will not stop for a moment,” he assured. The vote of confidence, the date of which is not yet official but could take place as early as this week, will serve to confirm the parliamentary majority of the current executive, a pro-European alliance that is as heterogeneous as it is politically fragile. Comprising forces ranging from the conservative agrarian wing to the social democratic left, the coalition had bet everything on Trzaskowski’s victory to overcome the presidential veto that had slowed legislative work over the past 18 months during the cohabitation with the outgoing president, Andrzej Duda. However, the calculations proved wrong.
Karol Nawrocki, a historian and the candidate backed by the populist Right and Justice (PiS), won Sunday’s presidential runoff with 50.89 percent of the vote against Trzaskowski’s 49.11 percent. It was a surprising result, considering that the first exit polls gave the latter a slight lead of 0.6 percentage points, so much so that, on Sunday evening (June 1), Trzaskowski proclaimed victory from the stage of his headquarters: “We have won! This is a special moment in Polish history.” Official figures, however, later overturned the outcome. The victory of Nawrocki, the former director of the Institute for National Remembrance and a polarizing figure in the public debate, represents a hard blow to the government’s reform agenda, notably on civil issues such as abortion and LGBT rights, which the new president has already hinted he will thwart by any means, including a presidential veto. The razor-thin margin by which Nawrocki prevailed reflects a country split between two opposing visions: on the one hand, the pro-European progressivism embodied by Trzaskowski, and on the other, a conservative nationalism fuelled by a resurgence in strength by the PiS, which now hopes to capitalize on the victory to undermine the hold of the parliamentary majority.
It is in this context that Tusk chose to up the stakes. The request for a vote of confidence is not just a symbolic gesture but a concrete attempt to stem the increasingly insistent rumors of a possible defection of some government MPs, ready, according to PiS rumors, to switch to the opposing camp. Przemysław Czarnek, a leading member of the Conservatives and former Minister of Education, said, “Perhaps not from tomorrow, but from Tuesday, we will start energetic work to make a gift to Poles: the end of the Tusk government.” The PiS leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, described the outcome of the runoff as “a red card” for the executive, openly calling for the formation of a “technical government” even led by a figure not organic to the right, in order to oust the current premier. Tusk, however, seems intent on closing ranks. His public statement, which came a few hours after Kaczyński’s speech, appeared as a direct response to the delegitimization attempt launched by the right. While admitting the moment’s seriousness, he emphasized that the executive has “the right cards” to continue governing, reiterating the centrality of the pro-European program and promising new bills in the coming days.
Beyond internal balances, Nawrocki’s election risks complicating Poland’s relations with the EU. During the election campaign, the new president expressed critical positions towards Brussels and has not ruled out alliances with other Eurosceptic leaders, such as Viktor Orbán. Last night, US President Donald Trump celebrated his victory by writing on Truth Social: “A Trump ally wins in Poland, shocking everyone in Europe. Congratulations, Poland, you picked a winner!” For now, the heads of the European institutions extend their hand to the new president: “I am confident that the EU will continue its excellent cooperation with Poland,” wrote Ursula von der Leyen on X congratulating Nawrocki. At the same time, Antonio Costa stressed that “Poland is and always has been the heart of Europe.”
English version by the Translation Service of WithubI believe in you, I believe in Poland. vinto
– Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) pic.twitter.com/4CYOCPnW7y
