Brussels – The decisive race for the Polish presidency is back on. Poland will hold the second round of presidential elections on Sunday (June 1), in a context that gives the vote more political importance than the office alone typically entails. In the running are Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw (from the Civic Platform, the same party as the prime minister) and a leading figure in the pro-European camp, and Karol Nawrocki, a historic sovereignist close to the Law and Justice (PiS) party, formerly in government between 2015 and 2023. The result will determine not only the internal institutional set-up but also the ability of the pro-European government led by Donald Tusk to continue the normalization undertaken since October 2023 with the EU after the change of majority to a more Euro-enthusiastic one.
Two weeks ago, in the first round, Trzaskowski was ahead without an absolute majority. On the other hand, the national-conservative bloc exceeded 50 percent of the vote if one adds the forces supporting Nawrocki and other right-wing candidates, such as the libertarian Slavomir Mentzen, making the contribution of abstentions decisive. The outcome remains uncertain.
The President of the Republic of Poland has a limited formal executive role. However, he has significant powers: he can veto laws passed by parliament and refer them to the Constitutional Tribunal, influencing the legislative process and affecting political stability. The current outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, supported by PiS, has repeatedly exercised this power, slowing the reforms proposed by the Tusk executive.
It is precisely the issue of reforms, especially that of justice, that is central to the relations between Warsaw and Brussels. The European Commission has released more than EUR 100 billion of EU funds for Poland after the start of a process to restore the rule of law by the new government. However, some measures are still blocked due to the opposition of the outgoing president: the election of Nawrocki would risk prolonging this deadlock, hindering the implementation of the reform plan, and limiting Tusk’s room of maneuver at the European level.
In foreign policy, both candidates are clearly opposed to Russia, a transversal position in Polish society. They differ, however, on other aspects of international strategy: Nawrocki, aligned with the Trump view and critical of the EU, proposes greater dependence on NATO and the United States, opposing greater European strategic autonomy in defense. He also favors strengthening alternative alliances within the EU, such as the one with Hungary. On the other hand, Trzaskowski supports the consolidation of the Franco-German axis and the strengthening of the European security pillar.
The vote will also have implications for the handling of the Ukrainian dossier. Although there is broad consensus on the need to continue military support to Kyiv, differences emerge in tone and political priorities. Nawrocki has taken more critical positions towards Ukraine, particularly on migration and EU enlargement issues, while Trzaskowski promotes continuity with the current support policy.
Runoff candidates Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki in a debate on TVP (Photo: Fast Info, official X profile)
The domestic context is marked by a strong polarisation between urban and rural areas, with the former oriented towards European integration and the latter more sensitive to identity and social issues. The use of social media and the spread of disinformation have accentuated the divisions, making the election campaign particularly heated, although formally marked by institutional tones.
Even though it may seem customary to describe every European election as “decisive for the future of Europe,” in this case, the vote will have potentially lasting effects on Poland’s European positioning. We are talking about the largest state in Central Europe, located on the eastern flank of the Union and bordering Ukraine. Together with Paris, London, and Berlin, Warsaw is part of the so-called coalition of the willing, which supports Kyiv and sets the strategy vis-à-vis Putin and Trump. Poland is also the country that spends the most on defense, 5 percent of GDP. A presidency in line with the government could strengthen its role. On the contrary, a hostile cohabitation risks limiting its ability to influence major EU decisions.
Therefore, Europe is observing Sunday’s outcome, aware that the future cohesion of the Union may depend, at least in part, on Warsaw.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
