Brussels – Hoping for the best but expecting the worst, went a famous song from the 1980s. A phrase (borrowed from Alphaville’s Forever Young, ed) that sums up well the approach followed by the European Commission in the negotiations with the United States of Donald Trump on the very complicated game of tariffs.
As the fatal 9 July deadline looms, after which—barring a last-minute deal between Washington and Brussels—the White House
may impose on EU imports generalised 50 per cent tariffs, the twelve-star executive (to which the Twenty-Seven have delegated exclusive competence to deal with trade issues) is working flat out to wrest the mercurial US president a deal that will satisfy everyone.
The line taken by Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, the EU negotiator who arrived in Washington a few hours ago, is the one outlined by Ursula von der Leyen last week, which in turn was based on the olive branch offered by the US tycoon himself to his transatlantic partners.
The proposal is for a 10 per cent “flat” tariff on all European products: an acceptable compromise, Brussels argues, if offset by appropriate exemptions for specific sectors—for example, pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft. The higher quotas currently imposed on steel and aluminium (50 per cent) and on auto and related components (25 per cent) should be lowered to 10 per cent.
In the US capital, Šefčovič is meeting with his counterpart Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chief Negotiator Jamieson Greer. “All I can tell you is that we want to get as much as we can, something that is fair to both sides, and that can help businesses in both countries have more predictability and clarity on how to plan their operations,” the College’s head of trade told the press.
From Aarhus, where she was visiting to inaugurate the Danish Council Presidency, von der Leyen confirmed again today (3 July) that the last word is not yet spoken: Brussels remains open to dialogue while staying on course. “We are ready for an agreement, we want a negotiated solution,” she reiterated for the umpteenth time like a broken record, “but at the same time, we are preparing for the possibility that no satisfactory agreement will be reached.”
That is why the Commission has developed its compensation list. “We will defend European interests as necessary,” von der Leyen repeats. The goal remains the same: to finally close the dossier by next Wednesday. “A colossal undertaking because we have the largest trade volume in the world,” she stressed.
On the table remains the hypothesis of further concessions that Washington could request from Brussels. To begin with, a softer approach towards Big Tech, on which several proceedings are pending under European rules, particularly those related to digital markets (DMA) and digital services (DSA). On this, the EU executive’s backing may be forthcoming. As well as on the purchase of two other US products that Trump has long advocated for: liquefied natural gas (LNG), which the EU already imports in significant quantities, and, above all, weapons.
At any rate, von der Leyen argues, there is no need to have the full picture ready by next week: “We are aiming for an agreement in principle,” she explains, because to finalise it “in detail is impossible in 90 days” (the window granted by Trump on 9 April, when he suspended the “reciprocal tariffs” imposed on Liberation Day a week earlier). Moreover, she recalls, “This is what the United Kingdom did as well.”
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The main economies of the EU are split into two opposing camps. On the one hand, Germany and Italy are pushing for a quick deal that would secure their exports, even at the cost of greater openness towards the White House. On the other hand, France and Spain would like to resist Trump’s pressure and define a more advantageous framework for Europeans.
For the time being, the line of the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz seems to prevail: Better a deal that is not the best but is concluded quickly than running the risk of remaining in uncertainty. According to rumours circulating in the last few days, both parties are in a hurry to close and would therefore be willing to meet each other halfway.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
