Almost 2 trillion, with CAP and cohesion together: the proposed new 2028–2034 EU budget

Brussels – Announced in advance, delayed on the day of presentation. The EU’s multiannual budget for the next seven years (MFF 2028–2034), one of the most important dossiers of the legislature if not the most important, shows the limits of the European Commission and its president, Ursula von der Leyen, who presents herself at the appointment with a dossier that is not even closed, but all still to be negotiated a few hours after a presentation press conference, which has not by chance delayed by hours. 

Negotiating strategies, certainly, and sometimes strategies can be less than brilliant. For those at the head of the EU executive, however, certainly not a venial sin. Not an easy dossier, certainly. Because some €168 billion is needed to repay the Eurobonds issued to finance the NextGenerationEU Recovery Mechanism. Money that is not needed for the budget, financed mostly by the governments that have already expressed a willingness to spend more on defence for NATO commitments. 

Many knots to unravel, and precisely for this reason, maybe, to be handled differently, perhaps by asking the co-legislators (Council and Parliament) for more time. Not least because, notoriously, haste is never the pioneer of great results. One of these unenviable outcomes is the image of a Commission that fails to present what it had previously announced, and in a significant way. The Commission’s strategy envisaged thematic presentations in the European Parliament, in time to report before the summer break. Instead the reports of Commissioners Roxana Minzatu (Social Rights) and Costas Kadis (Fisheries and Oceans) in the Fisheries and Labour committees were cancelled, while Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin’s presentation from 12.30 p.m. was postponed to 4 p.m. (without documents but only with slides, a reason worth criticism and reprimand), forcing von der Leyen to present the budget alone instead of together with Serafin, as planned.

“It was a marathon,” von der Leyen acknowledged. “We changed the texts in the course of the night,” and this resulted in a whole new workload for the legal services and a new debate in the college. “Now we have to fight to negotiate the next few years.”

A budget of 2 trillion, agriculture and cohesion together

In the end von der Leyen can put a draft on the table that envisages €2 trillion, broken down as follows: €865 billion for >”people, member states and regions”, €410 billion for competitiveness (which includes Horizon, and which provides €131 billion for defence alone), €200 billion for “Europe in the World” (which includes enlargement and external action), €400 billion for the crisis management mechanism, a special €100 billion fund for Ukraine, and €50 billion for culture, education and mobility. 

The 865 billion fund combines agriculture and cohesion, an operation that Parliament did not like. Furthermore, the fund is managed jointly by regions and governments, with national plans and reforms, another operation that the parliament preliminarily rejected. 

https://www.eunews.it/en/2025/07/15/eu-parliaments-red-lines-for-the-budget-cap-and-cohesion-must-stay-separate-with-at-least-the-same-resources/ 

“The regions know the situation on the ground better, and can manage it better,” von der Leyen explained at the press conference. “National-regional strategies can make it possible to invest better,” and more efficiently. The president of the EU executive also points to simplification: “Instead of having several different programmes, with the risk of overlapping, we have one and a stronger one.”

Rule of Law, Conditionality Remains. For young people, + 50 per cent resources

Von der Leyen wants to reiterate that for the cohesion funds, the rule remains that resources can be frozen in the event of a failure to respect fundamental rights or a deterioration of the rule of law in the member states. For young people, on the other hand, she announces a 50% increase in resources for the Erasmus+ programme for student and job mobility. Attualmente il programma ha risorse per 26,2 miliardi. This means that the Commission intends to allocate an additional 13.1 billion, bringing the total to €39.3 billion for the next cycle.

Five new sources of own resources and review

In its proposal for a new budget, the Commission introduces five new sources of revenue to be paid directly into the coffers of the EU executive: tobacco products, large companies with a net turnover of at least €100 million, carbon taxes from the ETS and CBAM, and e-waste taxes. These five ‘European taxes’ are expected to generate total annual revenues of €44 billion (11.2 billion from tobacco,  6.8 billion from business taxes, 9.6 billion from ETS, 1.4 billion from CBAM,  15 billion from e-waste), which would mean €308 billion over the seven years of the 2028–2034 period.

The budget will not, however, be final, at least in the Commission’s intention. Because if in the course of the next few years another current candidate country were to join the EU, the MFF 2028–2034 would be subject to revision.

The challenges facing the Commission

The EU executive has made every effort to present the draft budget as intended, although a second part of the dossier will be presented when the summer break resumes on 3 September. However, the premises are not promising: the single fund merging agriculture and cohesion had been discouraged by the European Parliament (where an absolute majority is needed), as was national and differentiated management of the funds. Not only that: on the new own resources mechanisms, the Council (where unanimity is required instead) is becoming more entrenched. Sweden, Greece, Romania, and Italy do not favour tobacco taxes, while the Netherlands, Ireland, and Luxembourg are not in favour of taxing companies attracted by favourable tax arrangements designed to make them stay. 

As if that were not enough, the €410 billion for competitiveness is not enough. Executive Vice-President Stephan Séjourné, responsible for Industrial Strategy, speaks of creating ‘a Draghi fund’, when in fact Mario Draghi, in his report for competitiveness, speaks of “at least €750-800 billion of additional investment per year.”