France and four other EU countries ready, states that recognise Palestine almost 160

Brussels – Yesterday (21 September), the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Portugal formally recognised the State of Palestine. Today, the same announcement is expected from six other countries, at a conference in New York, to restore vigour to a two-state solution now buried under the rubble of Gaza. By the end of the day, of the 193 UN member states, as many as 157 will recognise the right of the Palestinians to exist as a geographical and political entity.

The United Kingdom and Canada are the first G7 countries to do so. Together with Portugal, four other EU Member States are ready to follow up on the Declaration adopted by the UN General Assembly a few days ago: France, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Malta. Lichtenstein and New Zealand will do the same. At the EU level, the balance is changing, as the member states will have to discuss the sanctions against Israel proposed by the European Commission: until today, there were only 12 countries out of 27 to recognise Palestine. As of tomorrow, there could be 17. Germany and Italy are still missing.

The moment chosen by these 10 governments is significant: in addition to the conference organised by French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Arabia, the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, will be speaking at the Glass Palace. The former in attendance—despite an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court—the latter by video message: the United States has, in fact, denied him a visa to enter the country.

The Israeli PM has reiterated that “it will not happen, it will not be realised, a Palestinian state will not be established west of the Jordan River,” and accused “those leaders who recognise a Palestinian state after the horrific 7 October massacre” of offering “a huge reward for terrorism.” Washington, which continues to give unconditional support to Tel Aviv, branded the move by the 10 Western governments as merely “performative.”

A move of high political value, but which concretely—i.e., in the perspective of creating a sovereign Palestinian state—risks having no effect. Netanyahu himself has claimed that under his leadership, Israel “has doubled Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria and we will continue on this path.” Judea and Samaria are the names by which Israel designates the occupied Palestinian territories in the West Bank. Recognition of the Palestinian state will not alleviate, at least in the short term, even the suffering of the population of Gaza. In the midst of this diplomatic effort, in the last 24 hours, 61 people have reportedly been killed and 220 wounded in Israeli shelling on the Strip.

On the other hand, in the face of the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the Israeli government’s constant attempts to make the implementation of the two-state solution supported by the international community impossible in practice—most recently the plan for new settlements in the E1 corridor, which would divide the Palestinian territory in two by isolating East Jerusalem—this is a move that has already been postponed too many times and is overdue.

Mahmoud Abbas and Emmanuel Macron in New York in September 2024 (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

“The recognition of the Palestinian state is the realisation of a fundamental, constant, and basic line of Portuguese foreign policy,” said Paulo Rangel, Lisbon’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. For the Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, Canberra thus recognises “the legitimate and long-standing aspirations of the Palestinian people to have a state of their own.” The British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, said: “In the face of growing horrors in the Middle East, we are acting to keep alive the possibility of peace and a two-state solution. This means a safe and secure Israel, together with a viable Palestinian state. At the moment, we have neither one nor the other.”

In essence, the most direct consequence of the recognition of a state as such is the exchange of diplomatic representations, i.e. the opening of embassies and consulates and the deployment of diplomatic personnel. Theoretically, a state should fulfil four minimum criteria: having a permanent population, a defined territory, a government and the ability to maintain relations with other states. Not precisely the current situation of Palestine, whose internationally recognised territory—with borders dating back to 1967—is largely under Israeli occupation, and whose government—the Palestinian National Authority—controls only part of it.

Macron himself put some conditions for the actual recognition: the exchange of diplomatic representations, for example, will only take place once Hamas has returned all Israeli hostages. The latter “cannot have any form of control in or outside Gaza,” Portuguese Foreign Minister Rangel made clear. In the Paris plan, which Riyadh also supports, the recognition of the state entity is part of a broader process, including a reformed and democratically elected Palestinian Authority, capable of replacing Hamas in the administration of the Gaza Strip.