Eurostat confirms inflation at 2 percent in June; ECB seen holding rates unchanged

Brussels – The Eurozone’s inflation rate was at 2 percent in June. Eurostat confirmed its preliminary estimates released earlier this month, as well as the increase compared with May. Over the month, there was a slight increase for services (3.3 percent, compared to 3.2 percent in May) and for energy (-2.6 percent, compared to -3.6 percent in May). In contrast, there was a slight decline in food, alcohol, and tobacco (3.1 percent, compared to 3.2 percent in May), as well as non-energy industrial goods (0.5 percent, compared to 0.6 percent in May). 

Compared to the preliminary data released at the beginning of the month, the European Statistical Office has changed the figures for some Member States. Inflation in Italy is no longer stable, but up by 0.1 percentage points. It rises by 0.3 percentage points in both France and Spain (instead of 0.2 points), while in Germany the final rise is one whole point (instead of 0.9 points). 

The figure for Bulgaria, the country that got the green light to adopt the single currency as of January 1, 2026, is noteworthy. In June, the national inflation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1 percent, still far from the European Central Bank’s reference target of 2 percent.

Speaking of the ECB, Eurostat’s final inflation data comes a week before the Governing Council meeting (July 24) to decide on interest rates. The orientation of the Eurotower board appears to be to maintain current levels, and the indications emerging from the European statistical office do not seem to support a change in orientation. After all, general eurozone inflation is anchored at the level that Frankfurt likes.