Elections in Norway: Labour at the polls against “Norwegian Meloni”

Brussels – Norway is caught between its historic social democracy and the right wing. The Nordic country went to the polls today for parliamentary elections. The strong candidates are Labour’s outgoing Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre against right-wing champion Sylvi Listhaug. Both have a weighty CV: Støre has been Prime Minister since 2021, while Listhaug was Minister of Justice in 2018. The “Norwegian Meloni”, as Le Figaro called her, has brought the Progress Party, now the second national grouping, back into the limelight.

The challenge is tight. Polls put Labour around 27 per cent, while Listhaug’s far-right at 21 per cent. The possible coalitions, however, bring the two contenders closer together: Listhaug should be able to benefit from the votes of the Conservatives of former premier Erna Solberg, thus coming in around 81 seats, just under the threshold of the 85 needed for a majority.

Støre remains the favourite, given the help in extremis received from  Jens Stoltenberg, the former NATO Secretary General and outgoing Minister for the Economy. For the press, it was the “Stoltenback” that brought enthusiasm back to the centre-left after a negative start to 2025. Despite the odds in its favour, the risk for Labour is that it will have to create a very broad coalition, including, in addition to the already present Agrarian Centre Party and Socialist Left, also the far-left Red Party and the Greens, hitherto excluded from the executive. 

For Norway’s five million inhabitants, the elections come at a time of inflation. One of the reasons is the increase in gas prices. The increase is partly due to the fact that Norway is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA). Since 2022, Oslo has been obliged to increase electricity prices to comply with EU energy market rules. A paradox for a country that has no energy supply problem. Norwegians felt mocked and forced to pay an increase in their bills while the state-owned Statkraft energy company doubled its revenues.

For this very reason, the people of Norway do not look favourably on EU membership at the moment. In fact, party leaders have left the issue in the background during the election campaign, aware of the fact that, according to some research, more than half (55 per cent) would oppose EU membership.

The potential success of the Progress Party would further sideline the issue, given Listhaug’s clear opposition. The leader floated the idea of renegotiating the rules of participation in the European Economic Area (EEA), which guarantees the free movement of goods between Norway and the EU. The hypothesis suggested by the “Norwegian Meloni” is likely to remain only in election manifestos. Oslo exports about 66 per cent of its goods to the member states and cannot afford a reduction. The former prime minister was, on the other hand, more conversational: “Europe needs Norway and Norway needs Europe,” even if this does not mean joining. 

The first election results will be available after the polls close at 9 pm. The former Labour premier seems to be heading for reappointment, but in Norway, as in the rest of Europe, the ultra-right will undoubtedly increase its support.