Brussels – The EU is seeking to hold on to the South Caucasus, trying to shore up its presence in that corner of the world, which has always been considered by Russia as its area of interest and is now more strategic than ever. Enlargement Commissioner Martha Kos began a four-day trip today (17 September) that will take her to visit Azerbaijan and Armenia, in an attempt to strengthen ties with the two countries as the signing of a historic peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan seems to be approaching.
Kos will arrive in the Azerbaijani capital tonight, where she will meet tomorrow with the head of state, Ilham Aliyev and some leading members of the executive. The talks will focus mainly on common economic interests, allaying concerns over the systematic human rights violations in the country,which is ruled in an authoritarian manner by the 63-year-old president.
But business is business, especially in times of tariffs. Thus, first and foremost, energy supplies to the Old Continent will be discussed (Baku is a major producer of oil and natural gas, the same that arrives in Puglia via the Tap), but also the big infrastructure projects at this strategic crossroads between Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, right on cue according to the new EU strategy for the Black Sea.
She will then travel to the town of Aghdam, where the de-mining activities that began after the conclusion of the decade-long Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which erupted in 1992 and ended with the resumption of the Armenian separatists, are still underway. On Friday (19 September), she will therefore leave for Armenia, where she will meet President Vahagn Khachaturyan, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and some ministers. Here, too, she will reiterate the EU executive’s desire to deepen bilateral cooperation, focusing on trade and regional connectivity.
Kos’s Caucasian tour does not come at just any time. On the contrary, it coincides with a crucial stage in the normalisation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which began some time ago but has accelerated significantly over the last year. After over 30 years of war, the two republics have decided to put their diplomatic arsenal to work and are slowly making progress towards an agreement that, if concluded, could finally bring stability to the entire region.
US mediation brought a potentially decisive turning point to the affair. On 8 August, Donald Trump hosted Aliyev and Pashinyan at the White House. A seven-point joint statement emerged from the trilateral talks, which formed the basis for a 27-article peace treaty draft, modelled on the agreed text last March.
The document addresses the primary issues at the centre of the decade-long dispute between the two countries. Starting with the Zangezur Corridor, a land crossing desired by Azerbaijan to connect to its own exclave of Nakhchivan, nestled between Armenia, Iran, and Turkey. The route of the project, which will be realised with the participation of stars and stripes companies (who will be granted exclusive development rights for 99 years), will run along the Armenian-Iranian border and has been dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP.
The management of the post-conflict in the former Armenian enclave weighs heavily on the agenda. Baku does not intend to sign the treaty until Yerevan removes some references to the reunification of Nagorno-Karabakh with its national territory from its Constitution. Armenia is in the process of rewriting its Basic Charter. Still, the changes will have to be approved by a popular referendum, which may not be called until 2027 (parliamentary elections will be held next June). Then there remains the double issue of the Armenian prisoners in Azerbaijani jails and the Nagorno-Karabakh displaced persons.
In addition to the economic aspect, however, the progress in the bilateral negotiations is extremely relevant from a geopolitical and strategic perspective. On the one hand, the agreement (however provisional) certifies the Federation’s loss of centrality, now that the war in Ukraine prevents it from intervening in an area that it has traditionally considered its direct sphere of influence.
Albeit for different reasons, both Baku and Yerevan are progressively distancing themselves from Moscow to diversify their foreign policy and alliance networks. While Azerbaijan aims to further tighten its relationship with Turkey, Armenia is taking its first steps towards slow integration with the EU.
In March, the Armenian Parliamentcommitted the government to formally request candidate country status. Brussels, which has always encouraged the reconciliation efforts with Baku, already cooperates with Yerevan in a number of areas—from financial assistance to the EUMA civilian mission (which could be dismantled under the future treaty, which prohibits the presence of foreign troops along the border)—and the EU leadership have recently praised the progress made in this direction by the small Caucasian state.
In her wanderings around the region, Commissioner Kos will, however, steer clear of Georgia, the only country in the region that is officially a candidate for entry into the twelve-star club. Indeed, here the path to membership has been frozen for some time due to the increasing authoritarianism of the government—which constricts citizens’ freedoms and brutally represses dissent—and Tbilisi’s shifting towards the Kremlin’s orbit.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
