Dutch elections: Wilders’ ultra-right in the lead, but will probably not govern

Brussels – Uncertainty reigns over the upcoming early elections in the Netherlands. The ballot box date, scheduled for the day after tomorrow (29 October), is expected to confirm the extreme right-wing, anti-immigrant, and Eurosceptic Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, as the leading political force. That is to say, the very man who, last June, pulled the plug on the government of Dick Schoof after less than a year of difficult co-existence between the four souls of the most right-wing coalition in recent Dutch history.

 According to the polls, the SPV is expected to take home between 17.6 and 20 per cent of the vote, remaining the party with the most elected seats in the Tweede Kamer (the lower house of the national legislature) but losing a few points (and a few deputies) compared to the early election in November 2023. There, having come out on top with 23.5 per cent of the vote, the xenophobic ultra-right had won 37 seats out of a total of 150. This time around, a group of 26-29 elected representatives seems more likely. 

Chasing Wilders is the alliance of social democrats and environmentalists led by former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans, under the banner of Green Left-Labour Party (GL-PVDA). The polls credit the eco-socialists with around 15-16 per cent, in line with the result of two years ago. In short, the calls of the former number two at the Berlaymont for the construction (both at home and in the EU) of something similar to Italy’s “wide field” to bring together all the parties to the left of the centre under one roof seem to have fallen on deaf ears.

Also, according to the projections, the centre-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), led by Henri Bontenbal, is projected to be between 13 and 16 per cent. Close behind is the liberal-progressive D66 party led by Rob Jetten, which is hovering around 11-13 per cent. Behind them should come the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), a liberal-conservative formation led by Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, which should not get much more than 10 per cent. 

To date, the liberal derby between D66 and VVD—both members of Renew at the European level—already seems to be in the former’s hands. Jetten’s formation seems to have the wind in its sails, with sustained growth in consensus (plus 6 percentage points in the last few months). In contrast, the centrists orphaned by former premier Mark Rutte—current NATO Secretary General—are probably paying the price for having allied themselves with Wilders’s PVV after the last elections. 

Finally, below the double-digit threshold, there are a number of smaller parties, which should nevertheless find representation in the Kamer by virtue of the peculiar electoral rules of the Netherlands, where voting is by a pure proportional system in a single national constituency. The distribution of seats is determined by complex calculations based on the D’Hondt formula, and the bar is set at 0.67 per cent of the vote, which increases fragmentation in the House and makes the formation of majorities proverbially complex. 

There are the national-conservatives of JA21 (credited with around 8 per cent), the radical right of the Forum for Democracy (FVD, given around 3.5 per cent), the Socialist Party (SP) and the animal rights activists of the PVDD both close to 3 per cent, the Civic-Farmer Movement (BB) and the Reformed Political Party (SGP) just above 2.5 per cent, while in the vicinity of 2 per cent hover Denk, the Christian Union (CU) and Volt. The New Social Contract (NSC), on the other hand, seems close to disappearing.

Notwithstanding the polls’ margin of error, it seems likely that a three- or even four-way coalition, like the outgoing one (supported by PVV, VVD, BBB and NSC), will be needed to form the next executive. Schoof’s experience of government, paralysed by constant bickering between allies until Wilders’ exit, is certainly not edifying in this respect. Whoever wins, therefore, will have to engage in lengthy, complex negotiations to assemble a parliamentary majority. 

All the major political forces have explicitly refused to ally with the PVV leader, but this will not necessarily make things any easier, given the political geography of the new hemicycle. The very fact that this is the third election in four years—and the second early one in a row—clearly illustrates the condition of increasing instability in the rich coastal state. 

According to observers, a majority of the electorate would like to return to a more moderate policy after the earthquake triggered by the enfant terrible of the Dutch extreme right. However, as shown by the evolution of the Dutch public debate in recent years (within which, for example, positions on the issue of immigration have stiffened across the board), the xenophobic ultra-right is capable of heavily influencing the political balance of a country even without being inside the control rooms.