Maduro’s abduction: a test run to see how far one can go

What US President Donald Trump intended to do with his attack on Venezuela is, as always with matters regarding him, open to interpretation. It is certainly a violation of international law; it is certainly a populist act of “fighting the drug cartel,” and it is certainly a boost to a US oil company. But it is, above all, an act of arrogance aimed at testing reactions around the world, in anticipation of other sensational and probably useless, if not harmful, gestures for the United States. Colombia and Greenland have already been confirmed as targets by the 47th president of the United States, with great nonchalance, as if it were normal.

The attack had no effect on oil prices (after all, Venezuela accounts for less than one percent of global supply), gold went up, financial markets reacted well, and reactions from the rest of the world were not such as to cause concern in the US. From the European Union came an inevitable call for respect for international law, but there was no condemnation of the raid, nor any comment on the new situation. From China and Russia, who were Maduro’s “friends,” came soft words of condemnation. In short, the bombing, the deaths, and the abduction of Maduro and his wife have been accepted and already digested around the world. 

This paves the way to potentially dramatic – indeed certainly dramatic – scenarios. China is also trying to expand its commercial presence in South America, and, certainly, this move by Trump does not help it, but there is nothing it can do about it; it has no tools to respond, at least for now. But Beijing has a long-standing declared interest that has led it not to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, in fact, to accept US action in Venezuela: Taiwan. For years, Beijing has been preparing for the invasion (and for years, Taipei has been organising its defence). Beijing’s army seems not to be ready at the moment, but will be in a very short time. If, therefore, the international climate is that whoever has the force and uses it at will is legitimised to do so by the well-known principle that “might makes right,” then for Beijing, the problem of invading Taiwan becomes exclusively a military one, with no political problems abroad.

As far as Moscow is concerned, things are even more obvious: for four years, it has been trying to conquer Ukraine (without succeeding), and if things are as they are internationally, it will continue its war as long as it has the strength, as long as the US allows it. 

So there you have it, no tears for Maduro, who was certainly an unpresentable dictator, but many for a world system that has broken down, to return to the principle that “might makes right” that has bloodied lands on the European continent for centuries and centuries.