Portugal moves to second round in presidential race; the contest to hinge on the EU

Brussels – Pro-European socialist Antonio Jose Seguro (PS) or Eurosceptic nationalist Andre Ventura (Chega): the race for the Portuguese presidency is shaping up to be a contest between the extremes of a political landscape that has never been so uncertain and polarised. The first round of the presidential elections did not provide a winner, and Portugal will have to wait for the second round, scheduled for February 8, to elect its president.

The socialist candidate obtained 31.1 per cent of the votes, against 23.5 per cent for the nationalist candidate. The almost nine-percentage point gap leads experts to believe Seguro is likely to win the second round. This is also because the election results have disproved the latest exit polls: the socialist candidate exceeded expectations, while his nationalist challenger missed them.  

The Portuguese electoral system requires an absolute majority of votes to elect the President of the Republic; if no candidate reaches this threshold, the two candidates with the most votes compete in a run-off. Since Portugal emerged from dictatorship in 1976, there has only been one occasion when the country had to resort to a run-off vote to elect its president. That was in the 1986 elections, when the socialist Mario Soares won in the second round.