Denmark heads for early elections: Frederiksen plays the Greenland card

Brussels – The Danish people will return to the polls within a month. Today (26 February), the country’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, made the announcement during a speech to the Folketing, the Danish Parliament. “I have suggested to King Frederik X that he call early parliamentary elections for 24 March,” she said, thus deciding to shorten the current legislative term, which was due to end on 31 October.

 Although the Social Democratic leader did not explicitly mention it, the decision to call an early election is at least partly attributable to her party’s recent rise in the polls: in the last month and a half, the Social Democrats have gained several percentage points in most polls, rising from 18 per cent last December to 22 per cent last week. If these figures are confirmed at the polls, they would allow the country’s main centre-left party to win a relative majority of seats with a margin of about nine percentage points over its main competitor: the Socialist People’s Party, which belongs to the ecological left and stalled at 13 per cent.

The Social Democrats’ leap forward took most political analysts in Denmark by surprise, especially given the electoral debacle the party suffered in the last municipal elections. In December, the Social Democrats had to contend with a loss of support in 87 of the 98 municipalities that voted and, above all, with a resounding defeat in Copenhagen, a city they had governed continuously since 1903 and which passed into the hands of the Socialist People’s Party. From there, however, things took an unexpected turn for Frederiksen and her party, and the explanation is simple: repeated threats of annexation of Greenland by US President Donald Trump. 

Frederiksen—harshly criticised at home for her inability to adequately manage the country’s housing crisis and for her party’s partial shift to the right (in Italy, she has become known for a close alliance  with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on the issue of illegal immigration)—has thus thrown herself into foreign policy to regain ground. Since Trump’s first comments on Greenland—a semi-autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark—the Danish prime minister has maintained a stance that many consider particularly assertive and decisive in defending her country’s territorial sovereignty. Since then, the harmony between the executive and the “real country”—looking at the polls—seems to have returned. 

In light of this, it is no coincidence that today, during her speech at the Folketing, Frederiksen devoted considerable attention to the relationship between Copenhagen and Washington and its potential repercussions on Denmark’s security. “Security,” the prime minister emphasised, “will remain at the core of Danish policy for many, many years to come. As Danes and as Europeans, we really should learn to stand on our own two feet, define our relationship with the US, and rearm ourselves to ensure peace on our continent.” Then, referring directly to the Arctic issue, Frederiksen again warned Trump: “The conflict over Greenland is not over yet, and despite the start of the election campaign, the government will certainly continue to look after the interests of the Danish people.”

 While Frederiksen seems to have succeeded in regaining some of the support she had lost, a victory in the elections at the end of March would open up an equally complicated situation: the composition of the governing coalition. At present, the Social Democrats govern with Venstre (centre-right liberals) and the Moderates (centre), but it was precisely this opening towards the right that led Frederiksen’s more progressive voters to abandon her. The alternative could be a new alliance with left-wing forces. 

In any case, the Prime Minister knows that time is on her side and remains cautious for now: “Given the current situation, I am not ruling anything out and will avoid setting absolute conditions,” she said at the end of her speech.