EU fertility falls to record low of 1.34 children per woman in 2024

Brussels – In 2024, the fertility rate in the European Union – the indicator that measures how many children a woman would have on average if she lived through her reproductive years under that year’s birth‑rate conditions- stood at 1.34 new births per woman. This is down from 1.38 in 2023 and, above all, the lowest fertility level ever recorded since 2001 (the first year for which data were calculated at an aggregate level for the entire Old Continent). This was revealed in a report published today by Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office. The negative trend characterising the EU fertility rate is also reflected in data on the absolute number of births. In 2024, there were 3.55 million new births (7.9 newborns per 1,000 inhabitants) in all EU countries, a decrease of 3.3 per cent compared to 3.67 million in 2023.

 The figures presented in the study are particularly significant because, according to most demography experts, a developed country needs its fertility rate to remain around 2.1 children per woman for its population to remain stable over time without immigration (this is known as the “replacement level“). The EU, on the other hand, is approaching the threshold of 1.3, known as “lowest-low fertility,” and the consequences of such a trend are obvious: rapid population ageing, long-term population decline, a reduction in the labour force, and pressure on pensions and welfare.  

As for individual countries, in 2024 the lowest fertility rate was recorded in Malta, with 1.01 births per woman. This was followed by Spain (1.10) and Lithuania (1.11). Among the large EU countries, Poland (1.14) and Italy (1.18, down from 1.21 in 2023) fared slightly better, while Germany (1.36) and France (1.61) ranked higher. The French were even in the top three EU countries with the highest fertility rates, along with Bulgaria, which reached a “peak” of 1.72 children per woman in 2024, and Slovenia (1.52). Slovenia is also the only country among the 27 to have recorded an increase in its fertility rate compared to 2023, when it stood at 1.51. In the Netherlands and Luxembourg, the figure remained stable, while in the other 24 countries it declined.

While the overall fertility rate shows progressive signs of decline (the study notes that the figure has been falling steadily since the mid-1960s, except for a brief upturn in the early 2000s), there is one age group in which this trend is reversed. This is the case for women over 30, whose fertility rate, according to Eurostat, has been rising steadily since 2004. In fact, 2024 was the first year in which the 30-35 age group had the highest fertility rate, surpassing the under-30s. These figures confirm another well-established trend in European demographics: women are having their first child later, with the average age of the mother at birth of the first child rising from 28.8 to 29.9 between 2013 and 2024. Italy leads the ranking in this area, with an average age of 31.9, while Bulgaria has the youngest new mothers (26.9). 

Finally, the Eurostat study highlights the importance of a factor that could become increasingly significant over the years: the contribution of immigration – both intra- and extra-EU – to European birth rates. According to the report, in 2024, 24 per cent of newborns had a “foreign mother,” i.e., born in another EU or non-EU country. The percentage has been growing steadily since 2013, with the highest figure recorded in Luxembourg, where as many as 68 per cent of new babies had mothers of foreign origin. In contrast, Eastern European countries still have lower percentages: in 2024, in Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia, 97 per cent of newborns had a mother born in their own country.