The West advances as the European Political Community meeting in Armenia challenges Putin

Brussels – The future of the European Union is being debated at the very heart of Russia’s interests. The European Political Community (EPC), which is meeting in Armenia, is far from a mere formality: the EU wants to send a clear message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the West is moving forward, that it means business, and that Central Asia is no longer an area under Moscow’s exclusive influence.

 Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the international organisation that also includes Belarus and Kazakhstan, but it is also part of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a military and defence alliance led by Russia and comprising Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The European Union, together with its EPC partners, is therefore entering with renewed force into a part of the world where Russia’s geostrategic interests are well known and openly stated.

These decisions are no coincidence: the EU began to invest politically in its relations with Armenia through the 2017 bilateral cooperation agreements (in force since 2021). This initiative gained fresh momentum with the Yerevan government’s decision to join the EU. Moreover, the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has prompted the Armenian government to reconsider its participation in organisations led by Moscow: Russia did not intervene to defend Armenia from Azerbaijani operations, undermining the trust in Moscow and the functioning of the alliance system Moscow sought to establish in the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This prompted Armenia to look westwards, and the EU is trying to seize the moment.

 https://www.eunews.it/2023/09/19/ue-puo-e-fara-poco-in-nagorno-karabakh/

Azerbaijan’s gas, the EU for Armenia

The European Union has been unable to do much about the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, but this has not prevented it from making two choices and acting on two fronts: on the one hand, forging closer ties with Azerbaijan over gas, which, unlike Armenia, can be supplied to help the EU break free from Russian supplies, and, on the other, offering Armenia the prospect of EU membership in return. A formula that could be mutually beneficial, with gains for all parties involved: the EU would wrest spheres of influence from Moscow, Armenia would find itself safe under the European umbrella, and Azerbaijan could thus continue to keep a foot in both camps.

Putin’s warnings

Armenia’s moves have not gone unnoticed. On the contrary, during the bilateral meeting on 3 April, Russian President Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to remind Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that “it should be obvious and honestly stated in advance that membership of a customs union with either the EU or the Eurasian Economic Union is impossible.” These clarifications were offered a month ago, well in advance of today’s meeting (4 May). 

With the war in Ukraine still raging, opening up new fronts seems hardly feasible, but Moscow always has its energy weapon ready: at present, Russia is selling gas to Armenia at prices far lower than those in Europe (177.5 dollars per thousand cubic metres in Armenia, over 600 dollars per thousand cubic metres in Europe). A “substantial” difference that the Kremlin leader has not failed to point out to Armenia.

Europe moves forward, with NATO and the Turkey issue

 Europe remains unfazed and openly challenges Putin in what the Russian president considers his own backyard, bringing in Canada as well, a non‑European country but an active NATO member. It is the West pushing forward, worrying the Russian leader, who had already expressed his concerns at the Munich Security Conference in 2007. With Turkey still the real question mark in this European ambition to draw Armenia closer.

Turkish-Armenian relations have historically been tense and complex. The Armenians accuse the Turks of genocide, with a part of the EU that shares this historical interpretation. The inclusion of Armenia in the EU risks alienating Turkey’s support for the EU. With the United States threatening to leave NATO and Turkey being the Alliance’s second-largest military contributor, the situation risks becoming precarious.