‘A decade of regret’: most Britons would now vote to rejoin the EU

Brussels – A decade from the fateful 23 June 2016 referendum, which marked the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union, the political success of that vote appears to have been called into serious question. This has been revealed by data published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in May 2026: according to the report, the majority of Britons now believe that leaving the European Union was a mistake, and that if a new referendum were held tomorrow, the country would choose to rejoin. 

This study brings together the results of four online surveys conducted in May 2026 by Mandate and YouGov amongst UK voters on issues relating to the economy, immigration and security, with a wide-ranging opinion poll carried out in 15 European countries to map the international perspectives and political preferences of various electorates. The figures speak for themselves: 57 per cent of voters now consider the decision to leave the EU “wrong”, compared with just 30 per cent who still support it and 13 per cent who are undecided. This discontent is linked to inflation: 66 per cent of those surveyed blame Brexit for the rise in the cost of living and supermarket prices, while 65 per cent believe it has damaged the national economy.

Even more surprising are the figures on immigration, a key issue in the 2016 campaign: 56 per cent of Britons believe that Brexit has worsened the handling of illegal immigration, a view shared by 58 per cent of those who voted “Leave” at the time. “The perceived failure of post-Brexit immigration policy seems to have changed the politics around UK-EU freedom of movement.” 66 per cent of Britons would accept reciprocal freedom of movement between the UK and the rest of the EU-27, provided they could travel, live, and work freely, compared with 18 per cent who would reject it. This figure also includes 59 per cent of Conservatives. According to experts, “this suggests that freedom of movement no longer holds the centrality it used to in the UK’s Europe debate.”

Towards a hypothetical new referendum

 If the polls were held again today, the result would be clear: 52 per cent would vote to rejoin the European Union, while only 31 per cent would choose to remain outside it, 11 per cent would be undecided, and 6 per cent would not vote. Obviously, this shift is being driven primarily by the Greens, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats, but also by a small proportion (31 per cent) of Conservatives and even 13 per cent of members of Reform UK – formerly known as the Brexit Party – a conservative and Eurosceptic party. Furthermore, this shift in stance appears to be driven by a generational change. Among new voters, those who were too young to vote in 2016, the desire to rejoin the EU is overwhelming: 70 per cent would like to join the EU, a ratio of six to one compared to those who would prefer to remain outside (11 per cent) and almost 6 to 3 compared to those who are undecided or would not have voted (19 per cent).

In addition to the economy, the changed geopolitical landscape of 2026 is driving London towards Brussels. With a US administration led by Donald Trump perceived as unreliable, 63 per cent of Britons prefer to prioritise relations with Europe over those with the United States, while only 19 per cent would prefer the opposite (and 18 per cent are undecided). In particular, 18 per cent now view the US as a trusted ally, while 45 per cent view Europe as such. Among the EU-27, Germany has the highest percentage (53 per cent) of Britons who regard it as an ally, followed by Spain (52 per cent), France (51 per cent) and Poland (50 per cent). 

Oltre “Leave” e “Remain” 

Experts point out that the 2016 labels are now outdated. The 2026 electorate is now divided into three new camps, which, according to the poll, have “much better predictive force in today’s British politics than that of the leave-remain split.” The “Optimists” (28 per cent), who want a closer relationship with the EU because they believe they share its interests in the event of a future crisis; the “Realists” (35 per cent), “well represented among supporters of all parties,” who are keen on greater cooperation based on case-by-case assessments of costs and benefits; and finally the “Loners” (27 per cent), who prefer to maintain a “more distant” relationship with the EU because it would not have the same priorities as the UK in the event of a crisis. If there were a referendum tomorrow, 97 per cent of the optimists would vote to join the EU; the realists would be split between 58 per cent in favour of joining and 23 per cent in favour of remaining outside; whilst the ‘Loners’ would be split between 78 per cent remaining outside and 7 per cent joining. 

Regardless of everything else, the current state of relations appears not to satisfy the majority of the Crown’s electorate: only 6 per cent of those surveyed would like to keep UK-EU relations as they are, and only 7 per cent would like to have even fewer ties. The experts’ conclusions cannot say with certainty what would happen if the country were to embark on a new accession process, but that “boldness of a pledge to join a reformed EU could both mobilise political support at home and encourage governments in the EU to expend political capital on helping the UK get it.” 

The publication of the ECFR report is extremely timely: not only does it mark the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, but it also coincides with  Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation. This climate of political uncertainty follows recent statements by the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, who has already openly pushed for the UK to rejoin the EU, while a concrete sign of rapprochement has already emerged with the formalisation of participation in the Erasmus+ programme for 2027, demonstrating that the path towards closer cooperation has already been partially mapped out.