A decade after Brexit: stalled growth, six PMs and a bleak poll

Brussels – Tomorrow, 24 June, marks the tenth anniversary of the referendum in which the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. According to the available research, the economic outcome of that vote has been a disaster, particularly when compared with the far-fetched promises made by those who supported Brexit. And the political turmoil has been no less dramatic: since David Cameron’s time, there have been six prime ministers at Downing Street – a pace that is utterly unusual for Britain – with the current Labour Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, having tendered his resignation yesterday.

GDP, investment, productivity: the data from the study

A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), based on data from the end of 2025, estimates that Brexit has reduced the UK’s GDP by 6–8 per cent, investment by 12–13 per cent, employment by 3–4 per cent and productivity by 3–4 per cent. 

The research identifies four main channels through which Brexit has affected the UK economy: the persistent rise in uncertainty, which has primarily affected investment; a contraction in demand for goods and services; a reduction in investment in innovation and technology; and the fact that the most productive and internationally oriented firms have been among those hardest hit.

The survey: what are the benefits? “I don’t know”

As regards public opinion, a European Council on Foreign Relations survey shows that the majority of British respondents recognise the negative effects of Brexit on the cost of living (66 per cent), the economy (65 per cent), opportunities for young people (57 per cent), and irregular immigration (56 per cent). On this last point, as many as 58 per cent of those who voted for Brexit believe it has made the situation worse, despite immigration control having been one of the central issues of the referendum campaign. 

When asked about the main benefits of Brexit, the most common answer was “I don’t know.”

The current situation

At a macroeconomic level, in March, forecasts for UK growth in 2026 were revised downward, from +1.4 per cent to +1.1 per cent, due to geopolitical uncertainty. The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent, but noted that the conflict in the Middle East had disrupted transport and energy supplies, pushing up energy prices. Inflation has fallen to 2.8% but is expected to rise again due to these knock-on price increases. Article produced with the assistance of AI.