Germany: political party tensions rise, mainly between the CDU and the Greens — but the AfD is not to blame

Brussels – Mutual animosity between supporters of German political parties has increased significantly since 2020, according to an analysis carried out by the Dresden branch of the ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich. The sharpest increase has been observed in relations between supporters of the CDU/CSU and those of the Greens, followed by a cooling of relations between the CDU/CSU and the SPD.

 “Mutual animosity is growing in particular between supporters of the established parties, especially between the CDU/CSU and the Greens. Contrary to what is often assumed, however, the increase has nothing directly to do with the AfD,” explains ifo researcher Klara Lehmann.

 In East Germany, the rise in animosity between political camps is just as pronounced as in the west of the country. Around half of the increase recorded since 2020 can be attributed to the relationship between the CDU/CSU and the Greens, whilst a fifth stems from the deterioration in relations between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. 

“It’s not possible to definitively determine what triggered the increase after 2020, as several developments coincide, including the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and the collapse of the traffic light coalition,” notes Lehmann.

 The analysis measures the extent to which supporters favour their own party and reject others, regardless of the distance between their respective political positions. The authors have extended a well-established polarisation index – based on the GESIS Politbarometer, which collects party ratings on a scale of 0 to 10 alongside declared voting intentions – to cover the period up to 2024. 

Around 65 per cent of the increase recorded since 2013 can be attributed to a real rise in hostility, whilst the remaining 35 per cent is due to changes in the weighting of the vote. In the East, the index is rising slightly more sharply, but this is mainly a statistical effect linked to the different local political landscape: the actual increase in mutual animosity is identical between the East and the West.

Article written with the assistance of AI.