Global inflation set to stay elevated

Brussels – Economists worldwide expect a persistently high level of inflation rates, according to the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey of experts conducted by the ifo Institute. For 2025, the surveyed economists expect a global average rate of 4.0 percent (pct), in line with expectations in the previous quarter. “Inflation expectations have stabilized at a high level – both in the short term and looking at the coming years,” said ifo researcher Philipp Heil. “According to the experts, the current trade conflicts and import tariffs are a key driver of inflation.”

Respondents also expect an overall average figure of 3.9 pct for 2026 and 3.7 pct for 2028, which means that long-term expectations are likewise stagnating at a relatively high level.

Differences between regions of the world remain evident: while expectations in Western Europe for 2025, at 1.8 pct, are even lower than the 2 pct target set by the ECB, those in Eastern Europe and Asian countries are significantly higher. In the US, economists expect inflation to rise from 3.1 pct this year to 3.7 pct next year. The most common explanation for this trend is the tariffs imposed by the US government on imports. Much of Africa is expected to record the highest inflation rates, exceeding 20 pct in some cases.

A total of 1,340 economic experts from 121 countries participated in the survey, which ran from June 17 to July 1, 2025.