Consumer, manufacturing and services confidence increases: EU economic sentiment improves in December

Brussels – Economic trends seem to be improving or at least providing prospects for renewed optimism. In December 2023, the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) increased in both the EU (+8 points, to 95.6) and the euro area (+2.4 points, to 96.4) compared to the previous month. The Employment Expectations Indicator (EI) increased moderately in the EU (+0.5 points to 102.4) and remained virtually stable in the euro area (+0.1-102.0).

In the EU, improving economic sentiment was driven by higher confidence among consumers and managers in retail trade, services, and construction, while confidence in industry were broadly unchanged. Among the largest EU economies, the ESI improved in Italy (+2.6), Spain (+2.4), and Germany (+2.4), while it eased in the Netherlands (-1.1) and, to a lesser extent, France (-0.5).

Confidence in industry was broadly stable (+0.1) for the fifth consecutive month. While managers’ assessments of current overall order book levels continued the decline seen since May 2023, fewer managers considered finished goods inventories too high or higher than normal, and their production expectations remained virtually unchanged. Confidence in the services sector increased (+2.1), as managers were significantly more optimistic about past and expected demand and somewhat more upbeat about the past business situation. Consumer confidence rose further (+1.5), driven by improvement in all its components. There was an increase in the personal past and future financial situation component, expectations about the general economic situation, and intentions to make major purchases.

Confidence in the construction sector strengthened (+0.7) for the third consecutive month, reflecting more positive employment expectations and assessments of the level of orders. Insufficient demand remained the factor most often cited by builders as limiting construction activity (+0.8 points to 30.5 percent), followed by labor shortages (±0.0 points to 28.6 percent). Materials and equipment shortages increased slightly (+0.4 points to 9.4 percent), while financial constraints remained broadly stable (+0.1 points to 9.4 percent).