Public accounts, at the end of 2023 Italian debt is lower than EU estimates

Brussels – Italian debt is lower than expected. At the end of 2023, the government’s general gross debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio has improved, and not by a small margin: two and a half percentage points. The European Commission, in the autumn economic forecast published in November, estimated a 139.8 per cent for the Italian figure by the end of last year. Now, Eurostat certified that by the end of 2023, the debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 137.3 per cent.

It must be said that the European Statistical Institute produces consolidated data, while the services of the EU executive offer forecasts and, therefore, expectations. Discrepancies are expected, and thus, there is no disproof of the European Commission, which, in its exercise of analyzing economic trends, prefers a prudential approach according to the practice. In any case, the EU Commission’s figure is official because it is affixed to official documents, and Eurostat’s correction plays into the hands of Giorgia Meloni and her government, who will be able to claim credit.

One thing to keep an eye on is the debt reduction trajectory. Eurostat, as a statistical office, does not make forecasts or have any data for 2024; it is waiting for them. The Commission, on the other hand, in its autumn forecasts (winter’s ones, published in February, contain only some macro-economic indicators, but not deficit and debt), estimates an increase in debt (140.6 per cent relative to GDP in 2024 and 140.9 per cent in 2025). Whether things will improve will be seen on May 16, the day the Commission’s new forecasts, the spring ones, are expected to be published.