Sustainability, Migration, and the Budget: The Commission tested on the dossiers for the EU’s future

Brussels – Confidence in the European Commission and its President, Ursula von der Leyen,
was reaffirmed, and the EU executive will be able to catch its breath during the summer recess without too much turbulence. However, from the resumption of business onward, Brussels will be continuously put to the test to secure a stable majority. 

Work will pick up where it left off, with the multi-year budget (MFF 2028-2034). The proposal announced on Wednesday, July 16, was not well-received. On the contrary, the Parliament sharply criticized it. On September 3, the College will present the second set of proposals related to the seven-year budget. This is the first test for the Commission, whose main political task is to work with the majority formed by the Populars (EPP), Socialists (S&D), Liberals (Re), and Greens. This is what the House demanded in exchange for the vote of confidence. Yet, on the agenda, there is no shortage of topics with which von der Leyen’s EPP could wink at the right, and this is precisely the real crux of the European legislature. 

The European strategy on migration and asylum is expected to be announced in the fourth quarter of the year. It is a non-legislative text, but one that could help tighten flow management policies, as preferred by conservatives and the sovereignists. Regarding the decarbonization and competitiveness agenda, the bio-economy strategy and a targeted revision of the REACH regulation on the authorization and restriction of chemicals are expected. The Greens and Socialists have already rejected the action plan on the subject, demonstrating the dangerous game chosen by von der Leyen to continue a legislature where the support of the Greens and even more so the Socialists remains crucial for the team of Commissioners. Again, by the end of the year, the proposed revision of the Sustainable Finance Disclosures Regulation, another file that risks being slippery, is expected.

https://www.eunews.it/en/2025/07/04/von-der-leyen-set-to-win-vote-of-confidence-but-question-marks-will-remain/

 The European People’s Party, and consequently its group in the European Parliament, have decided to moderate the ambitions of the sustainability agenda. If the previous five years served to make the Green Deal, this legislature is serving to unmake it, thanks to the contribution of conservatives (ECR) and the sovereignists (PfE), from whom the EPP has asked and continues to ask for votes. How the Commission intends to work from here on is the real crux of this twelve-star political course. 

In the meantime, the Commission and its president will need to continue seeking the votes of the Socialists and Greens, starting with the delicate budget dossier, on which the consensus of these groups is crucial. With discontent within the S&D group, whose patience is running out, there is a real risk that it will pull the plug.

 In the great double-dealing orchestrated by EPP President Manfred Weber, the Populars might offer tokens of concessions on social rights and labour issues, which remain at the heart of the Socialists and Greens. However, these are mere decoys. The proposals expected by the end of the year (the new action plan to implement the European Pillar of Social Rights, the roadmap for quality jobs, the consumer agenda) refer to matters over which the European Commission has no competence. They are matters of national competence and anything produced will be non-legislative. Socialists and Greens will have to be good not to fall into the trap, and von der Leyen will have to be careful not to play with fire too much. 

There is therefore time to reflect in the wake of a break that the European institutions, as usual, are already taking. However, by the beginning of September, it will already be clear which direction this Commission will take: whether von der Leyen intends to seek the original majority that bears her name or whether, instead, her party will continue, with all the implications and risks involved, along the path taken so far.