Brussels – The EU-US trade agreement, as it stands, cannot be done. It is “unachievable”, at least as far as the energy chapter is concerned. This is stated by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a US organisation based in Ohio, in the analysis of the political understanding reached between the EU and the US. For the EU to live up to its commitments, the only alternative is to kick the Green Deal and any ambitions for sustainability, as “dramatically increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to meet the agreement is implausible.” This is because “the demand for gas in Europe is declining and the market is unlikely to be able to absorb the excess volumes,” the American institute denounces.
Even assuming the EU could develop an absorption capacity for an energy resource with no market in such a short time, the twelve-star club would still have to invest heavily in fossil fuels, which are primarily responsible for the greenhouse gases at the root of global warming. Based on 2024 prices and maintaining the same proportion of energy products purchased from the United States to total energy imports, IEEFA estimates that the EU “will need to triple its imports of oil, coal and LNG from the United States in 2025 to meet its commitment.” Oil and coal, precisely the opposite recipe to that contained in the European Green Deal.
There is also a geo-strategic issue that makes the EU-US agreement unsustainable for the Europeans. “The EU’s plan to buy $250 billion of American energy per year risks creating an over-dependence on a single supplier,” it is emphasised. The European Commission’s version, which claims this agreement will completely free Europe from its reliance on Russian energy suppliers, is silent on the fact that Europe is effectively handing itself over to the US. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis made the calculation: to comply with the agreement for the energy part “would force the EU to depend on the United States for 70 per cent of its energy imports.”
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
