How Trump’s tariff threats reshaped EU-US trade in 2025

Brussels – First the energy purchases in the United States, made necessary by Russia’s war in Ukraine, then the rush to build up inventories out of fear of the tariffs threatened by the US president, Donald Trump: the EU’s 2025 trade picture is essentially summed up in this way, in the overview provided by Eurostat in the note accompanying the data on transatlantic import–export flows. “Trade tensions between the United States and the EU boosted exports in the first quarter of 2025, followed by a sharp decline in the rest of 2025,” the European Statistical Institute points out. “In the fourth quarter, imports and exports fell, and the EU trade surplus shrank to 31 billion euros from a peak of 81 billion euros in the first quarter of 2025.” 

Overall, in 2025, the EU exported goods worth 554 billion euros to the United States and imported goods worth 354.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of 199.6 billion euros. Compared to 2024, both exports and imports increased by 3.4 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively. Specifically, however, the tariffs threatened by Trump at the end of February determined the flows. Thus, ‘made in the EU’ goods were sold immediately, for a value of 171.2 billion euros at the end of the first quarter, and from then on, less was sold: 135.1 billion worth of goods at the end of the second quarter (-36 billion), 130 billion at the end of the third quarter (-41 billion compared to the first quarter and -5 billion compared to the second quarter), with exports falling to 115.3 billion at the end of the fourth quarter (-56 billion compared to the total sold at the end of March 2025). 

It was mainly overseas operators who stocked up, concerned about rising import prices for European goods and merchandise. Trade flows in the other direction experienced fewer shocks: European imports of US-made products fell from 90.5 billion euros in the first quarter of the year to 84.3 billion in the last quarter.

There is no doubt that trade dynamics in bilateral EU-US relations have been affected by announcements, negotiations, and intentions. Looking at the chemical sector, Eurostat notes that “The trade surplus for chemical products decreased sharply compared to earlier quarters, this can be partly explained by the high value in the first quarter of 2025 (€54 billion), when exporters massively increased exports in anticipation of possible tariffs imposed by the United States.”

Not even the revenue made from selling LNG to Europeans has tempered Trump’s aggressiveness. Although no specific figures are provided, it is noted that “following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the EU increased its imports of energy products from the United States.” The EU has gradually replaced supplies from Gazprom’s gas pipelines, paying handsomely for liquefied gas from its Atlantic ally. A process that started under the Biden administration, but apparently insufficient for the current occupant of the White House to rebalance the trade balance.