Brussels – A 52 per cent reduction in irregular border crossings, but a death toll that continues to rise dramatically: the bad weather that lashed the main migration routes to the European Union in the first two months of 2026 slowed departures, but did not stop the tragedy at sea.
The new data published today (12 March) by Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, paints a mixed picture: on the one hand, total detections have fallen to around 12,000 irregular entries (less than half compared to the same period in 2025); on the other hand, the cost in terms of human lives has become unsustainable. Frontex reiterates what was already highlighted in January, namely that “adverse weather conditions” were the main factor behind this downward trend. At the same time, however, the human cost is relentless: according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), in the first two months of the year alone, almost 660 people lost their lives in the Mediterranean. “Many of these tragedies occurred due to adverse weather conditions. Criminal smuggling networks are well aware of the risks. They still send desperate people on boats that are unfit for navigation because there is money to be made,” wrote the border agency. But fears are beginning to arise about the consequences of the US and Israeli war on Iran on the EU’s borders: “Meanwhile, the worsening situation in the Middle East is likely to fuel displacement in the region in the coming months. So far, this has not had a significant impact on the migration situation at the EU’s external borders. Frontex continues to monitor developments closely,” Frontex said.
Among individual routes, the West African route recorded the most drastic decline, with 1,215 arrivals, a 83 per cent drop from the beginning of 2025. The Central Mediterranean route remains the most travelled, accounting for almost 30 per cent of all irregular entries into the EU, with 3,395 crossings. In contrast, the western Mediterranean route recorded 2,172 arrivals, down 9 per cent on the January-February 2025 period, while the Eastern Mediterranean route recorded 3,297 arrivals, down 50 per cent on the previous year. Finally, attempts to cross the English Channel decreased by 12 per cent, to almost 3,900, those at the eastern land border (with the Baltic countries) by 80 per cent (196 crossings) and those in the Western Balkans by 38 per cent (908 crossings). In terms of migrants’ nationalities, the largest flows continue to come from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Algeria.
In January, Frontex Executive Director Hans Leijtens, commenting on data showing a decline in arrivals from the western Mediterranean route in the first month of 2026 alone, stressed that “this drop shows that cooperation can deliver results” and that “being prepared
means officers on duty, assets ready, and close cooperation with national authorities and partners beyond the EU.”
In this context, the trend for the first two months of 2026 is in line with what was recorded in 2025 and in the first month of the new year. In a press release on 3 March, the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) reported a 19 per cent drop in asylum applications and arrivals compared with 2024. However, the institution pointed out that this decrease does not reflect greater stability in the areas of origin, but is mainly due to the collapse in applications from Syrian citizens—one of the three nationalities with the highest number of applications—following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the consequent reduction in the number of applications being processed by EU Member States. The Agency also highlighted that global structural fragility is on the rise, partly due to a 30 per cent contraction in international humanitarian funding.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
