91 per cent likelihood of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold by 2030

Brussels – “Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies expected to continue to be higher than the global mean.” This is the worrying warning from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which, with today’s publication (28 May) of its new report, produced in collaboration with the UK Met Office, has provided regional forecasts for temperatures and precipitation over the next five years. 

The WMO forecasts that annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026–2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. These figures put the Paris Agreement goals to the test: the international treaty adopted in December 2015 commits the 195 signatory countries – 194 following the US withdrawal, both times decided by President Trump – to adopt measures that limit the rise in global average temperature to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels and to continue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C. This is because, according to UN experts, exceeding the 1.5°C threshold risks triggering far more severe climate change impacts, including droughts, heatwaves, and more frequent and severe rainfall.

 However, the WMO report states that such forecasts would not completely undermine the objectives of the international treaty: “The 1.5°C (and 2.0°C) levels specified in the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming sustained over an extended period, typically assessed over 20 years.” Therefore, according to the World Meteorological Organisation, “individual years with annual global mean temperatures exceeding these levels do not mean that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach.”

It’s welcome news, but no reason to get complacent, with forecasts still flagging several anomalies ahead. The report specifies that “it is very likely (91% chance) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.” The probability drops slightly to 75 per cent for the scenario in which the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. Furthermore, “it is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record,” when the global average surface temperature was approximately 1.55 °C above the pre-industrial reference value.

 The situation is even worse in the Arctic, where temperature anomalies are expected to remain above the global average: “Arctic temperatures over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters (November-March) are predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020,” not to mention that over the next 10 years there will be further reductions in sea ice concentration in the Barents Sea (located north of Norway and Russia), the Bering Sea (at the northern end of the Pacific Ocean, straddling Asia and North America) and the Sea of Okhotsk (in the Russian Far East). As might be expected, the report also forecasts precipitation anomalies for the period 2026–2030 in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia, and the Amazon.

In recent days, record-breaking temperatures have swept across numerous European countries, including Ireland and Spain, while in Italy, today’s red alert affected Bologna, Florence, Rome, and Turin. In general, Europe is already experiencing warming at twice the global average rate, with 95 per cent of European territory recording above-average temperatures, turning heatwaves into a lethal threat that has already claimed too many lives.