Ukraine: EU under strain over financial and military aid

Brussels – Ukraine is now becoming a problem for the EU, both economically and militarily. The European Union is facing entirely new difficulties in ensuring the continuity of its support for Kyiv. “We have a further funding gap of 70 billion euros”, the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Valdis Dombrovskis, acknowledged on the sidelines of the Eurogroup meeting. This means that additional funds are needed, all of which must be found. Because, he emphasises, of this missing 70 billion euros, “the EU can cover around two-thirds, or around 45 billion euros”. So there remains a 25-billion-euro “gap”.

“We are working on possible options to present to the Member States” to meet Kyiv’s needs, Dombrovskis said, noting he was “confident that we will be able to find these 45 billion euros, which are on top of those already disbursed to date.” He then clarifies: “The issue of Russian assets will remain on the agenda” in the debate. Given the situation, the EU has no intention of abandoning this option, which has proved difficult to pursue so far. Despite this, “the issue has not disappeared from the radar”, not least because the generally accepted view in Europe is that “Ukraine will repay the loans when Russia starts to repay them, and if Russia fails to pay, we will use their frozen assets”.

 The new frenzy over a fresh economic aid package comes on top of the German government’s announcement that it was halting the supply of Patriot missiles: “For the moment, we will not be able to replace what we are supplying,” said the German Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius. Germany has effectively exhausted its stockpile, and continuing to supply anti-aircraft defence missiles “would create gaps in our defences, for which we cannot take responsibility”. For this reason, “at the moment, we cannot do any more”. 

The European Union, therefore, finds itself in a bind and in the difficult position of having to admit to the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, on several occasions that the support of the twelve-star Union is far from unwavering, as publicly stated. One must also take into account the unstable German government led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s party, the CDU, whose support is plummeting, and the rise of right-wing parties. This, too, is holding back German momentum, something with which Ukraine and the rest of the European Union must come to terms.

 Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is visiting the Black Sea region, “where security threats are escalating, attacks are increasing, and innocent lives have been lost,” she wrote this morning. In Romania and Bulgaria, von der Leyen will meet with leaders to discuss the situation on the ground and how Europe can strengthen its response. “Ahead of the visit, I had a good call with President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. Freedom of navigation in the Black Sea must be restored and preserved. I reiterated my support for his call for a ceasefire covering food and energy infrastructure,” the President said.