The breakdown (and recomposition) of the European right, to have greater weight

The big pre-election job in these elections for the tenth European legislature passes to the right. From the centre to the left, the political forces remain the traditional ones: socialists with socialists, greens with greens, and the left with the left. Conversely, starting from the People’s Party (EPP) and moving to the right, a lot of work is going on, like a sprint in a bicycle race, where everyone looks for the best positions for the final lunge.

The final lunge is to present themselves without the ballast of the most extreme positions to join the ranks of the “pro-European” forces invoked by Ursula von der Layen. This will qualify them to participate in a governing majority, which, unlike in national systems, can change during the legislature, as the president of the Commission reminded.

The sovereignist and nationalist parties are united in two parliamentary groups, but due to their very nature they often have great difficulties in working together on common projects. There are even forces such as the European Conservatives, chaired by Giorgia Meloni, who did not present a unified candidate for the Commission presidency, probably aiming to “adjust their game,” perhaps brushing off some bothersome presence once the polls close. The Id group did not even present a common programme.

The crux of the matter is the European People’s Party, the largest party in Europe, comprised of various souls, very different from each other. Some say, by way of example, that a Northern European popular is more to the left on certain issues than an Italian PD member. This is perhaps an excess, but the party indeed has souls that look decidedly in different directions; this was clear when parliamentary group chairman Manfred Weber, at the end of the current legislature, tried to bring his deputies to a deal with the right on one of the Green Deal bills and was defeated because most of his MEPs did not follow him. The very nomination of von der Leyen as presidential candidate at the EPP congress was not a success of unity.

So the forces of the radical right, of the extreme right—in short, all those who sit to the right of the EPP and who are eager to have a role in European decisions—are looking for a way to be “accepted” at least by the majority of that party.

Add to this the fact that the Rassemblement National—the party that could become, nationally, the biggest vote-getter in Europe—has been shifting to more moderate positions for years because its leader, Marine Le Pen, believes she can win the next French presidential election, for which, however, she needs to broaden her electoral base. With virtually no one further to the right, she needs to look toward the centre. This is not to say that she seeks an appeasement with the Populars, but the movement is, again, going in that direction. Then, if Le Pen were to become president of the French, things could still change, somewhat like Giorgia Meloni, who, since she became prime minister, seems to be von der Leyen’s best friend and has abandoned the strongly eurosceptic positions held for years.

After months of tension, today (May 23), Le Pen decided to expel the AfD Germans from the Identity and Democracy (ID) group in the European Parliament. The Lega had to accept the choice, not least because in the next Parliament the largest national representation in that group will be precisely French and no longer Italian. The Italian representation—regardless of how much it may appear to be eurosceptic—is part of a government coalition led by Meloni, and therefore, more than that, in Brussels, it cannot unleash.

Also today, during a debate between Commission presidential candidates, von der Leyen clearly credited this design of “moderation,” which she evidently supports. “I have worked very well with Meloni, as with the other members of the European Council,” she clarified to the reporter who asked her what relationship she would like to have with the Conservatives after the elections. “On concrete issues, we will see who is pro-European; Meloni is pro-European, she is pro-rule-of-law; we can offer her to cooperate,” she clarified. But when the reporter asked her if she “is ready to work with the ECR”, she “gave away the game” going on on the right: “I did not say that”, von der Leyen replied, “We will work with those who are pro-Ukraine, against Putin, and for the EU. I’m not talking about groups; I’m talking about deputies entering various groups. There is still no clarity on the composition of the groups,” he stressed, revealing the ongoing work.