Belgium slips to the right, after De Croo’s resignation conundrum for new coalition

Brussels – The collapse of the Flemish Greens and Liberals in Belgium’s federal elections marks the end of the so-called “Vivaldi coalition”, the traffic-light alliance led by liberal premier Alexandre de Croo. The winners lie on the right, with the nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) party, and, on the far right, the separatist Vlaams Belang movement, which recorded its best result ever. De Croo resigned today (June 10) (as he is obliged to do after an election), taking responsibility for the disastrous election results.

In Belgium, in addition to EU Parliament candidates, polls were held to renew the federal and regional parliaments of Flanders, Wallonia, the capital Brussels, and the German-speaking community. The debacle of the Greens (the Flemish Groen and the Walloon Ecolo) and the Flemish liberals of Open VLD (the prime minister’s party) was clear from Super Sunday. Although the other members of the governing coalition held their own—with the Socialists remaining the country’s most prominent political family, the Christian Democrats losing only one seat, and the French-speaking Liberals (MR) in full swing—just enough to put an end to the 7-pronged coalition.

“The King has accepted my resignation. The government will manage current affairs and prepare the transition to a new team,” De Croo announced on the sidelines of the meeting with King Philip of Belgium. In tears, the prime minister had already announced that he was leaving office: “It is a particularly difficult night for us; we lost,” he admitted, promising, however, that “the Liberals are strong; we will be back. As the country’s history shows, the phase opened by De Croo’s resignation could last even longer: the negotiations for creating the Vivaldi coalition had lasted 493 days, while in 2010-11, the period without an executive had lasted 541 days.

Everything will depend on the will of the winners of the federal election round. The leader of the N-VA nationalists, Bart De Wever, has already been received by the king for initial consultations. After him, Tom Van Grieken of Vlaams Belang and Georges-Louis Bouchez of the Francophone Liberals are also expected at the royal palace in Brussels this afternoon. With 24 seats won, N-VA remains the largest party in the Federal Assembly, followed by MR and Vlaams Belang, with 20 seats each. The possible scenarios are quite intricate. De Wever has expressed a desire to lead the country with a coalition of liberals and centrists. With the seven seats of the Open-VLD, the 11 of the Christian Democrats of CD&V, but especially the 20 of MR and the 14 won by the centre-right of Les Engagés, the coalition would reach 76 seats out of the total 150 in the Federal Assembly—exactly half plus one.

If so, the new coalition would configure a slide to the right from the previous one, with the exit of the Greens (which between Flemish and Walloon fell from 21 to 9 elected deputies) and the Socialists and the entry of the centre-right Les Engagés. Another hypothesis, as suggested by the Belgian newspaper Le Soir, is a federal-level union of parties that could form majorities in the Flemish and Walloon parliaments. On one side, N-VA, the Vooruit Socialists and CD&V; on the other, MR and Les Engagés. Mathematically feasible and in line with De Croo’s statements indicating a willingness to sit in opposition.

Both options leave the far-right Vlaams Belang out of the power game despite winning 20 seats and the best result ever in its history. Not enough, however, to become the largest party in Flanders, as pre-election polls had suggested for months.