“Majority holds,” but the European Parliament remains almost alone and the Union is weaker

The outgoing majority in the European Parliament held up even though reshaped by an EPP enriched with right-wing content. There was no feat of the Euroskeptic and far-right parties, which saw a marked increase overall, but not enough to assault the Parliament. The leader of the Populars, Manfred Weber, has already called the gathering of Socialists and Liberals to reform a robust majority (with a strong EPP lead). The Greens also appear to support Ursula von der Leyen, who at this point seems serenely confirmed as President of the Commission, at least for what will remain of environmental policies.

The problem of the European Union is not the Parliament but the governments. The landscape is bleak because the EU emerges weakened, so much so that one can imagine paralysis. In Germany, the coalition went disastrously badly in these European elections. It will probably not draw the consequences and will continue to govern for another year and a half, weak and even more uncertain than in recent years. In France, Emmanuel Macron bet it all by dissolving Parliament, but if he loses the bet, which is possible, Marine Le Pen will become Prime Minister. With all the bad things she has said about the EU, a French engine to support the development of the EU is not to be expected.

Then there is the Netherlands, which has just unleashed a far-right government; Austria, based on yesterday’s vote, is threatening to have one in the fall; And Belgium will take its usual year, a year and a half, to form a government that is likely to have a significant nationalist presence.

The European Union, however, has vital challenges ahead. They were the “most important elections ever” to manage the response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, to manage the implementation of the Green Deal, to move forward on the implementation of an increasingly indispensable Capital Union, for a defense policy that plugs the many loopholes that have emerged in recent years, for a coordinated industrial policy that strengthens this set of small and medium-sized states that are in danger of being squeezed between the U.S. and China. And I don’t know what can happen with migrants, which more and more governments want to push back, but more and more will come.

So, there is not much to rejoice about today for those who believe in the strength of the European project. One crucial piece, of course, has held, but to do what? What policies will von der Leyen and MEPs be able to push forward if governments are so unconvinced about the need to work together so that all can grow?