The names have come out: Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas, Antonio Costa, and Roberta Metsola. they will be at the top of the European Union For at least two-and-a-half years. Then, maybe Costa, Metsola, or both could change, but a starting team is there, and even in five years, it should not come to be too different.
Two Populars, one Liberal, and one Socialist. It is the starting majority in the Council and Parliament. Along the way, many things will happen: tentative arrangements, people will break up and meet again, but the core, the base to hold on to, is there. We will see in Parliament how solid it is because, honestly, for von der Leyen to be confirmed, she will have to overcome a not-so-easy hurdle. But let us assume today that she will succeed.
However, the question that also an influential analyst like Stefan Lehne asked is compelling and legitimate: will they be a united group, which, despite their different political views, will be able to draw strength from being united and cohesive, thus giving strength to the whole Union because they will support one another?
These four leaders have known each other quite well for years. They have attended many European Councils together, although not always at the same time; two of them are or have been heads of government; one has not (von der Leyen), but by now, she is, in fact, part of the club. Metsola has also had a chance to work with everyone.
Von der Leyen, Charles Michel, and Josep Borrell did not know each other, or had they ever worked together. They had probably crossed paths; after all, the circle of European politicians is not huge. They were, however, basically strangers five years ago.
The Union’s two top leaders had a very short honeymoon in the legislature that is drawing to a close. There has been so much jostling between von der Leyen and Michel, especially by the Belgian, that now they barely look at each other. Indeed, it is no mystery to anyone that although not being able to be confirmed for a new term, Michel tried with some effort to prevent von der Leyen’s confirmation. It was a race to the top that lasted five years and that Michel lost.
There has also never been much good blood between the President and her deputy, the High Representative for Foreign Policy. They are distant political families and views of the world. Just think of that on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, sometimes at opposite ends.
There has been some tension between von der Leyen and Metsola, of the same political family. All in all, however, the relationship seems to have worked, partly because they work on really different levels.
Now there is this new trio plus one, and there seem to be the conditions to work better; not on everything, maybe, but at least with no major personal competition on the horizon. It would be good to see them working together for the good of the whole Union.
