Nato, Rutte’s warning: “Shift to war mentality”. Two per cent of GDP in defence is no longer enough

Brussels – Mark Rutte, NATO’s new secretary general, wastes no time. His first major public outing after taking office at the helm of the Atlantic military alliance is almost a call to arms: “It’s time to switch to a war mentality,” said the former Dutch premier, because “the danger is moving toward us at full speed.” Facing Russia that “is preparing for a long-term conflict” and will spend between 7 and 8 per cent of GDP on arming itself in 2025, the 2 per cent threshold set by NATO is no longer enough.

“We are going to need a lot more,” Rutte warned, pressed by Carnegie Europe director Rosa Balfour before an audience of journalists, European officials, business leaders, and defence experts. A new military spending target shared at the NATO level is not yet there, “but it is clear that in the coming months, we should agree on what the new threshold will be.” Addressing not only the governments of those few countries—including Italy—that have not yet reached the 2 per cent threshold but also banks, pension funds, and the public and citizens, the secretary-general clearly stated, “It is unacceptable to refuse to invest in defence.” Even if it “means spending less on other priorities,” such as pensions, health care, and social security. The Atlantic Alliance “needs a small percentage” of that money.

The military threat, Rutte made clear, is not immediate: “For now, our deterrent is good, but in three or four years, it may not be.” For it is increasingly evident that Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran “are working together to secure their own sphere of influence.” Of growing concern beyond public enemy number one, Vladimir Putin, is Beijing’s attitude. China “is substantially increasing its forces, including nuclear weapons, without transparency and limitations,” Rutte pointed out.

The “top priority” for NATO’s 32 allies is to strengthen the defence industry, scarred by “decades of underinvestment” and remaining “too small, too fragmented, and too slow.” It is not just about spending more but spending better. And together: for Rutte, at the European level, it would be important to insist on joint procurement, “otherwise the financial impact will be enormous.” To meet the secretary-general’s demands, the European Commission has already recognized defence investment as a priority, widening the mesh of budgetary stringency for public spending in this area.

Yet, on the doorstep is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, who may engage in a peace negotiation with the Kremlin much sooner than expected. After the outcome of the U.S. elections, the possibility of sitting down at a negotiating table with Putin has gained weight, not least because Washington might otherwise scale back its commitment to Ukraine’s resilience. For Rutte, speculation about the parameters to be brought into play to end the war benefits Moscow: “There is a huge risk of starting a negotiation without even being seated at the table,” he warned. It will be important to secure the peace guarantees demanded by Zelensky because if Putin emerges as the winner from the negotiations, it will be “a bad deal.”

On the relationship with the new occupant of the White House, who threatens to close the stars-and-stripes umbrella of protection over Europe, Rutte toned it down: “Trump wants to push us, and he is perfectly right; since he became president in 2017, we have accelerated” on defence. But let’s be clear: NATO “does not want to spend more because he wants to, but because our security is at stake.”