Europeans skeptical of Trump’s peacemaking role, but the rest of the world is more confident

Brussels – Donald Trump is a problem for Europeans, but in the rest of the World, he is seen as a president capable of contributing to peace processes. This is the finding of a global survey by YouGov/Datapraxis/Gallup, commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

The survey was promoted ahead of the informal EU Leaders’ Summit (with the UK and NATO) on Monday, Feb. 3, which will focus on strengthening European defense cooperation and resilience to observe attitudes toward Trump’s return and the implications of his second presidency for Ukraine and the Middle East and the perceptions of influence among world powers.

America’s allies are nervous about Trump 2.0 and doubt it will bring positive changes

In the UK, South Korea, and EU countries – all key US allies-there is skepticism that a Trump presidency would make any difference to the situation in Ukraine or the Middle East. Just 24% in the UK, 31% in South Korea, and 34% in the EU (average result across 11 EU countries polled) believe Trump’s return would make achieving peace in Ukraine more likely, while even fewer people (16% in the UK, 25% in the EU and 19% in South Korea) believe he will make it more likely to achieve peace in the Middle East.

More broadly, just one in five in the EU (22%) say they now view the US as an ally. This is down significantly from two years ago (31%) and stands in contrast to the proportion of Americans who view the EU as an ally (45%).

Citizens of the leading middle powers are optimistic about the return of Donald Trump

In countries from India and China to Turkey and Brazil, majorities or pluralities think the return of Trump will be a ‘good thing’ for peace in the world, their country, and American citizens. This is especially pronounced in India (where 82% see it as a ‘good thing’ for peace in the world; 84% view it as good for ‘their country’; and 85% a ‘good thing’ for American citizens), and Saudi Arabia (57%, for peace in the world; 61%, for their country; and 69%, for American citizens).

rump’s peace-maker pitch, vis-à-vis Ukraine and the Middle East, has resonated globally.

In India, for example, large majorities (65% for Ukraine; and 62% for the Middle East) believe that Trump’s return will make peace more likely. This position is also evident in Saudi Arabia (62% for Ukraine; 54% for the Middle East), Russia (61% for Ukraine; 41% for the Middle East), China (60% for Ukraine; 48% for the Middle East) and the US (52% for Ukraine; 44% for the Middle East). Ukrainians, however, are more reticent when it comes to Trump’s ability to bring peace, with surveyed respondents broadly divided on the question (39% believing his return will help bring peace to Ukraine, and 35% saying it is less likely). Optimism about Trump’s peace-making capacities is the weakest in Europe and South Korea.

The EU is held in high regard – with many seeing growth in the bloc’s influence.

Majorities in India (62%), South Africa (60%), Brazil (58%), and Saudi Arabia (51%), and pluralities in Ukraine (49%), Türkiye (48%), China (44%), Indonesia (42%) and the US (38%) believe the EU will wield “more influence” globally in the coming decade. The bloc is also widely seen as an “ally” or “necessary partner” by respondents of the countries surveyed. This view is most pronounced in Ukraine (93% ally or partner, vs. 4% rival or adversary), the United States (76% ally or partner, vs. 9% rival or adversary), and South Korea (79% vs. 14%). But it’s also a majority view everywhere else – except for Russia.