Energy, EU’s (short) roadmap toward independence from Moscow’s gas

Brussels – The European Union circles the date of its independence from Russian gas on the calendar: 2027. “This is no small thing. It is not without challenges,” European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said at the press conference presenting the RepowerEU roadmap. “But it can be done, and we will do it in a phased and coordinated way. By supporting member states where and when it is needed,” he added.

With actions ranging from monitoring gas used in the EU to stopping contracts via national import elimination plans, the roadmap aims to complete the work the EU began three years ago in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Today, the European Union sends a very clear message to Russia: Never again. Never again will we allow Russia to use energy as a weapon against us. Never again will we allow our member states to be blackmailed. Never again will we indirectly contribute to filling the Kremlin’s coffers,” Jorgensen affirmed. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, half of the coal used in the EU came from Moscow. “We stopped doing that completely,” the commissioner recalled. “On Russian oil, we went from 26 per cent to 3 per cent”, while “on gas, from 45 per cent in 2022 to 13 per cent today.” But in 2024, the EU saw a resumption of purchases: “Last year, in the EU, we paid Russia €23 billion for our energy imports. That is €1.8 billion a month,” Jorgensen admitted. “This has to stop. That is why, today, the Commission has adopted a roadmap that will bring it to an end,” he explained.

The document presented today is a communication and will be followed next month by a package of legislative proposals. Among them, one will focus on the current situation of Russian gas used in the EU. In fact, within the next month, the European Commission will present a legislative proposal on rules for greater transparency, monitoring, and traceability of Russian gas. In addition, the European executive “aims to include similar transparency requirements for all gas imports into the EU in the future revision of the energy security architecture in 2026.” For the Commission, “existing EU legislation has already contributed to greater transparency and traceability of gas imports into the EU, but the information is not sufficiently detailed,” and, in addition, “there is no coherent EU framework on transparency, monitoring, and traceability of Russian gas imports into the EU.” So, Brussels will propose “the necessary measures for more effective monitoring and traceability”: one measure will require companies to provide information on Russian gas supply contracts (e.g., volumes and duration) to the competent authorities of member states and the Commission; another will allow information on actual Russian gas imports to be shared between customs authorities, national energy and security authorities, and the Commission. In this way, governments and the Commission will be able to access relevant information on Russian gas injected into energy systems, “enabling the implementation of targeted and effective measures at the EU level and the preparation of alternative supplies.”

Another action requires member states to prepare national plans to phase out Russian gas by the end of the year. Specifically, the plans will have to indicate the volume of Russian gas imports under existing contracts, including contracts with “take or pay” clauses (a type of agreement commonly used in the energy sector, particularly in gas sales, which stipulates that the buyer takes delivery of a specific amount of gas or pays a predetermined penalty in the event of failure to take delivery, ed.); a timetable with milestones for achieving the goal of phasing out Russian gas; diversification options; and technical capabilities to replace Russian gas.

The most decisive measure sets a ban on imports under new contracts and existing spot contracts on Russian gas by 2025 and a ban on imports of Russian gas under existing long-term contracts to 2027. In other words, new contracts with Russian gas suppliers (pipelines and LNG) will be prevented, and existing spot contracts will be suspended by the end of 2025. “The short-term contracts will have to be stopped this year, amounting to about one-third of the imports,” Jorgensen explained. “Two-thirds, the long-term contracts, will have to end by 2027. This will be in the form of a ban, a prohibition. Legally, for companies that might have these contracts, it means the principle of “force majeure”, and therefore they cannot be held liable,” he clarified.

The Commission clarified that all measures in the table will be accompanied by “continued efforts to accelerate the energy transition and diversify energy supplies, including through gas demand aggregation and better use of infrastructure.” And today’s communication also touches on nuclear, given that, in 2024, about 23 per cent of the EU’s entire demand for uranium conversion services was met by Russia, and  Russia covered nearly 24 per cent of the EU’s needs for uranium enrichment services. Here, restrictions will be introduced to phase out Russian imports of uranium, enriched uranium, and other nuclear materials, making them “economically less viable, and, next month, the Commission intends to restrict new supply contracts co-signed by the Euratom Supply Agency for uranium, enriched uranium, and other nuclear materials with Russian suppliers from a certain date. In this area, the Commission also intends to propose next month a legislative proposal with specific objectives for member states to “replace Russian nuclear fuels with alternative fuels, accelerating the contracting and licensing of such fuels and further developing fully European alternatives”; “phase out dependence on Russia for uranium, enriched uranium, and other nuclear materials”; and “increase transparency on dependencies and encourage diversification of Russian supplies of spare parts and maintenance services.”

Regarding oil, the Commission intends to submit next month its legislative proposal on national plans to phase out remaining Russian oil imports and recommends that interested member states submit, by the end of the year, their first national plans outlining their strategies for replacing Russian oil imports by the end of 2027, including the timeline; diversification options; and the volume of Russian oil imports under existing contracts and their expiration.

Finally, as part of the roadmap, the Commission will also present new actions to address the problem of the Russian shadow fleet transporting oil, and a European ‘Radioisotope Valley’ initiative is also planned to secure the EU’s supply of medical radioisotopes through increased internal production.

“Russia poses a threat to all of us. Therefore, we must act. And therefore, let’s take these significant new measures against Russia. Important actions to ensure our independence, in solidarity with Ukraine,” Jorgensen said. “At the end of this year, all member states will present concrete plans to block Russian energy imports. New gas contracts and existing spot contracts will be banned already this year, thus eliminating one-third of current imports from Russia,” Jorgensen reiterated. But the doubt is over the word “all”. The Hungarian comment to the roadmap was not long in coming. “After the total failure of sanctions against Russia, the European Commission is committing today another serious mistake by forcibly, artificially, and ideologically excluding Russian energy sources,” said Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto in a video posted on Facebook. And it should be remembered that, for Hungary and Slovakia, Russian oil still accounts for more than 80 per cent of their total oil imports.