Demographic crisis: Aging EU population relies on immigration, with Italy leading the decline

Brussels – The European Union faces a deep and structural demographic crisis, redefining political, economic, and social priorities for the coming decades. Data released today (May 20) by Eurostat paints a clear yet complex picture: the population is growing slightly but aging inexorably, while birth and death trends are intensifying imbalances among member states. Immigration remains the primary driver of demographic growth.

As of January 1, 2024, the EU had a population of 449 million, an increase of 0.4 percent compared to the previous year. This growth of 1.6 million people is mainly attributable to the rebound of post-COVID migration flows and the arrival of Ukrainian refugees fleeing the war. Without this external contribution, Europe’s population would be in decline: since 2012, the natural population change (births minus deaths) has been negative, reaching –2.6 per thousand in 2023. Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland together account for roughly 66 percent of the EU population. However, each country’s demographic weight varies. While Spain and France have recorded significant absolute increases over the past twenty years (+6.1 million), Italy has experienced a sharp drop in birth rates and particularly pronounced population aging.

The share of the population over the age of 80 has risen from 3.8 percent in 2004 to 6.1 percent in 2024. At the same time, the proportion of children under 15 has dropped from 16.2 to 14.6 percent, with Italy ranking last at just 12.2 percent. The result is an increase in the median age: today, it stands at 44.7 years in the EU; in Italy, it’s as high as 48.7—the highest in Europe. Only countries like Ireland, Malta, and Luxembourg still have a median age below 40. Fewer children are being born and at later ages. The fertility rate in the EU has fallen to 1.38 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1. In Italy, the rate is even lower, at 1.21 children per woman, and mothers are giving birth later and later—the average age at first childbirth is now 29.8 years, rising to over 31 in Italy, Spain, and Ireland. Moreover, births to women over 40 have more than doubled in the past twenty years.

Life expectancy in the EU has reached 81.4 years, rebounding after the drop caused by Covid. Still, significant disparities remain: in Italy, it is among the highest at 83.5 years, while in Eastern countries like Latvia and Bulgaria, it does not exceed 76 years. Women live, on average, 5.3 years longer than men, although this gap is slowly narrowing.

Furthermore, the distribution of the European population is anything but uniform. It ranges from 1,766 inhabitants per km² in Malta to just 18 in Finland. Growth trends also vary widely: countries like Luxembourg, Malta, and Ireland are growing rapidly (+48 percent, +41 percent, and +33 percent since 2004). On the other hand, Latvia, Bulgaria, and Lithuania are experiencing double-digit population declines.

On the immigration front, nearly 6 million people moved to an EU country in 2023, most from non-EU countries, with Germany and Spain absorbing over 40 percent of these flows. According to Eurostat, the arrival of migrants has become the only factor capable of offsetting the natural demographic decline in Europe. However, only 1.1 million migrants were granted citizenship in a member state, mostly Syrians and Moroccans.

These figures compel the EU to rethink its social and economic model. Aging puts pressure on pension and healthcare systems, while declining birth rates call for more effective family policies. In this context, immigration — often viewed as a crisis — could instead become a valuable structural resource capable of supporting the labor market and social cohesion. In any case, the demographic challenge is more urgent than ever. Europe’s future may well depend on its ability to adapt to the changing makeup of its population.