EU (almost) on track to meet climate goals. Eyes now on 2040: Ribera calls for 90 pct emissions cut

Brussels – The EU could narrowly meet its climate targets for the end of the decade. According to the European Commission’s latest projections, we are “on course” to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 54 percent by 2030 compared to 1990. Stopping just one percentage point short of what European climate law requires. With relief, the horizon shifts to 2040: for executive vice-president Teresa Ribera, the goal is “to build the conditions to reach 90% by 2040.”

The legislative proposal on the 2040 climate target is just around the corner. Initially scheduled for the first quarter, it has been postponed to June. Faced with resistance among member states and in the European Parliament, led by the European People’s Party’s decisive backtracking on the Green Deal commitments, the EU Climate Commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, preferred to postpone it and launch a round of consultations with governments. Now, on the strength of the progress certified by the  European Commission on the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), he seems to be moving towards maintaining the target of the 90 percent emissions cut compared to 1990 but offering more flexibility to capitals.

“Defining a clear target for 2040 will make post-2030 actions predictable, strengthen investor confidence, and further support the achievement of our 2030 targets,” Hoekstra told a press conference together with Ribera and European Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen. “Concrete actions must now accompany ambition on paper. I will continue to support and work with the Member States to make this happen,” he added.

For now, emissions data certify a long-term path of “decoupling” from economic growth: in thirty years, the EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by 37 percent, while the bloc’s GDP has grown by 68 percent. “Europe is proving that reliable and predictable targets based on science and proper regulation deliver concrete results,” said the Executive Vice-President responsible for Clean Transition. In addition to (almost) reaching the 55 percent target for 2030, “if Member States fully implement existing and planned national measures and EU policies,” it will be possible to reach a share of at least 42.5 percent of the energy produced from renewable sources. Clean energy “is becoming the main source of electricity in the EU, and we are reducing our final energy consumption,” Jørgensen confirmed.

On the share of renewable energies in the EU total, there remains a gap of 1.5 percent compared to the bar set by Brussels. However, “if the Member States implement their most ambitious projects, the 42.5 percent target will be within reach,” said the EU executive, who has adopted measures to speed up the granting authorizations and promote projects in the sector. On the other hand, the chapter on energy efficiency is more uphill. Despite the drop in overall consumption from 2021 and the “greater ambition” of the updated national plans, “significant gaps” remain compared with the path that would allow reaching the targets by the end of the decade. “Member States should also accelerate renovation rates, implement comprehensive national plans for building renovation, and promote energy efficiency solutions to meet and exceed the EU targets,” the Commission argues. Ears will be burning in Rome.

 Brussels will, therefore, “continue to support the Member States in their implementation efforts and in closing the remaining gaps,” the EU executive assures. Gaps pose a particular risk for the three that have not yet submitted their final national plans: Belgium, Estonia, and Poland. “They must do so without delay,” the Commission urges.