Israel-Iran, Kallas preaches “de-escalation” and “diplomacy'”—but EU has no real strategy

Brussels – While the escalation in the Middle East shows no sign of stopping, the EU is trying to find a way out. But there is nothing new on the table of the foreign ministers, who met today for an emergency session, beyond the usual trite statements. Kaja Kallas talks of de-escalation and restraint at the same time as Benjamin Netanyahu threatens to assassinate Iranian leader Ali Khamenei and Donald Trump enjoins the Islamic Republic to abandon any nuclear programme altogether.

Talking to journalists at the end of the Extraordinary Foreign Affairs Council meeting this morning (17 June) in virtual format to discuss the war unleashed from Israel against Iran, High Representative Kaja Kallas reiterated for the umpteenth time the same formulae, now almost cloying, that EU summits, Member States, and leaders of the G7 have been repeating for days.

The EU, said the former Estonian premier, “asks both sides to respect international law and show restraint.” Today’s meeting was also useful, Kallas explained, to “coordinate Member States in evacuating our citizens from the region,” for which the EU has activated the civil protection mechanism.

The negotiating track: the Iranian nuclear issue

The discussions focused on “what we can do to facilitate de-escalation“, she explained. Brussels, Kallas emphasised, “supports a diplomatic solution” on all fronts: both with regard to the ongoing war, now in its fifth day, and to get the negotiation process regarding Tehran’s nuclear programme back on track. “Now that the talks between Iran and the United States have broken down, the EU has a role to play,” she says, announcing that she is in contact with her Israeli and Iranian counterparts as well as local partners, as “the stability of the region is in everyone’s interest.” And such stability, she notes, passes through an Iran without an atomic bomb.

On this issue, Brussels’ approach seems less tranchant than Washington’s. While the tenant of the White House has enjoined the Tehran leadership to fully renounce any form of uranium enrichment (including for civil purposes), Kallas admits that he has “had discussions with Iran about its nuclear programme,” accounting for the different sensitivities on both sides of the Atlantic: “The United States speaks for itself,” she points out, and not for the Twenty-Seven.

The High Representative called “regrettable” the withdrawal of the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, decided by Donald Trump himself during his first term. The bilateral negotiations between Washington and Tehran to reach a new understanding, replacing the historic 2015 agreement (brokered by the EU), had reached an impasse in recent weeks. A couple of months ago, the US president had launched an ultimatum to the Iranian leadership, after which the bombs from the Jewish state arrived on time.

The Military Front

Benjamin Netanyahu justified that pre-emptive strike—a controversial practice under international law—by claiming that the Islamic Republic would be one step away from the atomic bomb, with which it would directly threaten Israel’s existence. But the same Star and Stripes intelligence had been warning for months that it would take at least three years for the ayatollahs to build a device and use it against their enemies.

At any rate, the High Representative considers that a direct US intervention on the side of the Jewish state “would drag the entire region into a wider conflict and this is in no one’s interest“, recalling that Tehran has shown a willingness to stop the missiles if Israel suspends the bombing.

However, Kallas was unable to define specifically what diplomatic initiatives the EU is planning, or in what ways it intends to “exert pressure” on the belligerents to achieve the de-escalation. In the meantime, despite Trump’s claimed ‘veto’ of such an operation, the higher echelons in Tel Aviv continue to entertain the idea of assassinating Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

For the latter, they say, a fate similar to that of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi dictator deposed and executed following the 2003 invasion of the Gulf country by the coalition of the willing—the original one—led by the United States, may be in store. An interesting parallel, considering that that war was justified by Baghdad’s alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction that never actually existed.

From Gaza to Kyiv (and Moscow)

The foreign ministers also discussed, briefly, the humanitarian catastrophe that continues to unfold in the Strip, overshadowed by the military escalation ordered by Netanyahu. “We will not drop the focus on Gaza,” the twelve-star diplomacy chief said, reiterating the need for the “immediate guarantee of the entry of humanitarian aid and the putting in place of a comprehensive ceasefire” that includes the release of all hostages. On the other hand, the revision of the EU-Israel Association Agreement,
on which the Commission services are working, will be on the table at the Foreign Affairs Council next Monday (23 June).

Finally, there was also time to mention the war in Ukraine. In the past few hours, Kallas said, Russia has conducted one of the most devastating raids on Kyiv in over three years, showing that it is not interested in any truce. Therefore, the High Representative cut short, Vladimir Putin can in no way be invested with the role of mediator in the conflict between Tel Aviv and Tehran, as recently suggested by Trump and, on the contrary, “we must maintain the pressure” on the Kremlin.

Translated: full steam ahead with the approval of the18th package of sanctions, which, however, is destined to remain lame, since the tycoon has confirmed that he does not support one of its central components, namely the lowering of the ceiling on the price of Russian crude oil from $60 to $45 per barrel (on which all G7 partners must agree). According to Kallas, “we should move forward” on the price cap, and the escalation in the Middle East provides an additional reason: “Protect the stability of global energy markets.” It is unclear, however, how the Twenty-Seven could independently implement such a measure without coordinating with Washington.