Trump-announced Israel–Iran ceasefire appears to have already been violated

Brussels –The Middle East is increasingly volatile. A few hours after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, Iran and Israel accused each other of violating the truce. As the events continued to unfold, the White House occupant left for the NATO summit in The Hague visibly altered, rebuking the leaderships of both countries and claiming that the agreement was still in place.

In a whirlwind of events that continue to unfold at an accelerated pace, in the last few hours, the conflict between Israel and Iran appeared to be on the verge of escalating, involving the United States as well, then appearing to be resolved with an unexpected ceasefire between the two regional powers, and finally reigniting due to alleged violations of the newly agreed truce.

It was just past midnight today (24 June) when Donald Trump triumphantly proclaimed on his social platform, Truth, that the Jewish State and the Islamic Republic had reached an understanding on a ceasefire. “Assuming that everything works as it should, and it will,” the tycoon wrote, “I would like to congratulate both countries, Israel and Iran, for demonstrating the strength, courage, and intelligence necessary” to end what he suggested to dub “the 12-Day War“. The latter, he noted, was “a war that could have lasted for years and destroyed the entire Middle East.” However, he said, this “has not happened and will never happen.”

From the outset, there had been misunderstandings about the time horizon of the truce, which the tycoon reportedly described as a 24-hour commitment and which, again, according to Trump, would officially come into effect around 7 am this morning. In the following hours, both sides had confirmed that they were willing to observe a pause in hostilities.

An essential role in reaching the agreement was played by Qatar, where last night Iran’s retaliation for the US involvement in the conflict, through the bombing of the nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan on 22 June, materialized. In a largely symbolic action (and one that had been announced to the White House), the ayatollahs struck the US base at Al Udeid, near Doha.

However, at around 9:30 am today, Israel denounced an Iranian ceasefire violation, claiming that missiles had reached its territory, an accusation rejected by the Islamic Republic. Tel Aviv’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, promised that the Jewish state would respond “forcefully” by hitting directly at “the heart of Tehran” with “intense strikes.”

However, before the Israeli Army (IDF) retaliation occurred, Trump rebuked both belligerents for violating the truce. “We basically have two countries that have been fighting for so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f****k they’re doing,” he told reporters before leaving for the critical  NATO Summit in The Hague today and tomorrow.

He showed particular irritation at the behavior of his ally Benjamin Netanyahu: “Israel must calm down,” he blurted out to the long-standing ally, arguing that one does not honor a ceasefire by pouring “the biggest load (of bombs, Ed.) I have ever seen” on the other side.

Trump reportedly heard Netanyahu on the phone and enjoined him to call off the attack. “Israel will not attack Iran,” he wrote in yet another post on Truth, repeating that “the ceasefire is in effect.” According to the latest media reconstructions, the head of the Tel Aviv government reportedly reiterated the need to respond to the Iranian violation but agreed to reduce the scale of the attack on Tehran, which could happen at any moment.

The latest developments further destabilize the entire region and mark another failure of diplomatic initiatives deployed by Western powers. The Europeans had attempted to engage the Islamic Republic through talks in Geneva on its nuclear program on 20 June. Still, the effort collapsed as a result of the US attack on Iranian atomic facilities, launched just 24 hours later.

Moreover, the B-2 Spirit bombing was called illegal by Emmanuel Macron just last night: “It could be considered legitimate to neutralize the nuclear facilities in Iran, given our objectives,” the French president reasoned. “However, there is no legal framework” to justify such an action in the light of international law and the UN Charter, he added, “and, therefore, we must tell it like it is: these attacks are not legal.”

French president, Emmanuel Macron (photo: Frederic Sierakowski via Imagoeconomica)

There has been no official reaction from the EU executive to the ceasefire violations, for now. The president of the EU executive, Ursula von der Leyen, welcomed the announcement of the ceasefire as “an important step towards restoring stability in a tense region,” stressing that “this must be our collective priority.”

Regarding the latest developments, the Commission’s spokespersons reiterate that “the reported missile firing underscores how fragile this ceasefire can be.” They renewed their call for “all parties to exercise the utmost restraint.” “We urge Iran to engage seriously in a credible diplomatic process because the negotiating table remains the only viable path,” they continue from the Berlaymont.

Taking up the message delivered yesterday by High Representative Kaja Kallas, the spokespersons reiterated that “we are in dialogue with all parties because escalation benefits no one” and that “everyone is concerned about the same thing, namely the ripple effect” that such actions can have throughout the region.