Revision of the EU free trade agreement advances Ukraine’s path to accession

Brussels – The new EU-Ukraine free trade agreement is taking shape in detail. Having reached the agreement in principle between the negotiating teams, technicians have finalized the figures and quotas that will govern trade relations between Kyiv, Brussels, and the 27 capitals. All that is missing now is the final political green light from the member states to replace the provisional measures ( that have been in place for the past three years) with a revised comprehensive framework, less ambitious but more pragmatic than the previous one, dating back to 2016.

It was Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen and Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, who on Monday (30 June) announced the conclusion of the “intensive” negotiations (which lasted around three weeks) on the revision of the EU-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement, which will regulate trade flows between the two economies. Today (4 July), EU sources shed light on some additional technical aspects of the new framework, pending final confirmation by both sides.

The original version of the pact, with the technical name Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), was stipulated in 2014 as one of the pillars of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and entered into force in 2016. After the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, it was replaced by a provisional Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) framework. Through the ATM, pre-existing tariffs and trade barriers on Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU were suspended, opening the single market to Kyiv for cereals, maize, eggs, poultry, sugar, dairy products, and more.

However, these were exceptional instruments introduced unilaterally by Brussels in an emergency circumstance (the Federation’s aggression, precisely) that have been renewed on an annual basis since then. Thus, as the expiry of the last extension in early June approached, the EU executive set to work to update the 2016 DCFTA. Now, the new text provides a long-term perspective, described by insiders as predictable and reciprocal.

As Hansen himself admits, the revision just concluded is “less ambitious” than the agreement nine years ago, but aims at the “right balance between supporting Ukraine’s trade with the Union and responding to the sensitivities of a number of agricultural sectors” in the 27 member states. Farmers have long been lobbying national governments (especially, but not only, in France and Poland) to rebalance the concessions granted to Kyiv, fearing unfair competition in their own markets. The new agreement is “balanced, fair and realistic,” said Šefčovič.

According to officials, the revision mainly introduces two new features. On the one hand, Ukraine pledges to gradually align its agricultural production standards with those of the EU in several areas (including animal welfare and pesticide use) by 2028, subjecting itself to annual reviews. A mechanism that also reinforces Kyiv’s path towards membership in the twelve-star club, ensuring that the candidate country follows the same rules as member states.

On the other hand, alongside this conditionality, the agreement provides for safeguard mechanisms to protect European markets, to be activated in the event of severe disruptions at the Community or national level. It will be the Commission that will formally propose the activation of such safeguards at the request of the chancelleries.

Finally, the DCFTA revision adopts a variable-geometry approach regarding the access of Ukrainian goods to the European market. The import quotas will increase substantially for several products exported from Kyiv, while those defined as “sensitive” (such as eggs, sugar, wheat, poultry, and honey) will receive special attention. In this case, the quota increase will be more modest, and the final value will remain below historical trade volumes.

There will be full liberalization for other types of products (e.g., dairy products, such as whole milk powder and fermented milk, as well as mushrooms and grape juice). The assessment of the sensitivity of a particular export category takes place by analyzing the ATM regime in light of past disruptions from a specific market, as well as the EU’s capacity to absorb additional imports. Conversely, Ukraine commits to significantly increasing import quotas from the Twenty Seven in particular sectors.

Now, the final steps are missing to reach definitive adoption, which, in theory, should be a formality. The Commission has presented the new text to the co-legislators (the Parliament and the Council), and a decision by a qualified majority of the Member States will be required to proceed. Once the green light has been obtained, the final approval of the DCFTA 2.0 will take place by the EU-Ukraine Association Committee.

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