Brussels – Climate change is generating increasingly scorching heat, leading to a growing demand for air conditioning to protect against sweltering summers. According to the ifo Institute, one of Germany’s leading think tanks, the future is set. The Munich analysts have no doubt: from now on, “More air conditioning systems are needed worldwide to protect people from the consequences of global warming.”
With data in hand, the researchers’ study indicates that currently only 27 percent of households globally have air conditioning, and this share could rise to 55 percent by 2050. In 25 years, therefore, more than one in two households could have air conditioning installed in their homes. This represents a significant challenge, as it will require greater energy production and distribution. In the long term, sources and networks will be essential. “That’s why solutions that provide more energy, promote greater energy efficiency, cooler cities, and changes in behavior are urgently needed now,” emphasizes Filippo Pavanello, an ifo expert among those responsible for the study.
In this scenario of increasingly ” crazy” climate-related heat, decisive political action will be needed, not only in Europe. Because, as the ifo Institute points out, the increase in demand for air conditioning “will not be equally distributed” globally. In Africa, for example, fewer than 15 percent of households are expected to have access to cooling systems by mid-century. In such a scenario, nearly four billion people worldwide would be exposed to extreme temperatures without access to mechanical cooling. In addition, the researchers warn, “low-income households would have to spend significantly more on cooling in the future (up to 8 percent of their income) than richer households (0.2 to 2.5 percent), exacerbating energy poverty and inequality.”
To avoid the worst starting from the immediate future, the world must therefore move towards a truly sustainable production and economic model. Among the actions that ifo suggests to governments are expanding renewable energy and storage capacities, promoting the deployment of energy-efficient technologies, supporting urban planning for cooler cities, and encouraging behavioral changes such as moderate thermostat settings.
For the European Union, all this translates into defending the Green Deal, on which, however, all EU institutions are somewhat backtracking in this legislature. “Ensuring sustainable and equitable access to cooled or heat-resilient living spaces must become a global policy priority for moral, health and social reasons,” Pavanello said. There would also be economic reasons. The European Central Bank warned as early as 2023 that increasingly sweltering and excessive heat produces work-related stress, with negative repercussions on productivity. Also for this reason, the researcher concludes, “it’s high time to act.” Faced with a world suffocated by heat, air is needed to breathe again – air conditioning.
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