EU-US tariff deal under fire; renewed risk of censure motion against von der Leyen

Demanding action are the other Italian deputies of the Greens – Ignazio Marino, Leoluca Orlando, and Cristina Guarda – together with the Italians of The Left – Ilaria Salis and Mimmo Lucano – who are shaking up a Parliament closed for the summer recess and yet already at work for when institutional activity will resume. The Liberals (Re) have let it be known that in September they will ask for a confrontation with the Populars (EPP) on the agreement and the continuation of the legislature. and the Socialists (S&D) will do the same. In light of an unpopular tariff agreement that needs refinement, a reckoning is coming.

Socialists and Liberals have no intention to unseat von der Leyen. It could be done, of course, but that would mean having to renegotiate the proposed new seven-year budget (MFF 2028-2034), which Parliament dislikes anyway, without a functioning EU executive, effectively blocking decision-making and legislative processes. This is somewhat a “stroke of luck” for the Commission, from which, however, Re and S&D are ready to demand an all-political quid pro quo involving maintaining a cordon sanitaire against the far right not least because neither the Socialists nor the Liberals believe that this is the moment to create further tensions for an EU executive still negotiating to find exemptions to the 15 percent tariff regime that will come into force on 8 August (it is one week after Donald Trump signed the presidential decree on 31 July).

Von der Leyen and her EPP need the support of S&D and Re, in case of any new no-confidence vote. After all, it only takes a few votes, 72, barely 10 percent of the members of the House, to add the issue to the agenda. In such a scenario, the Eurosceptic, sovereignists, and extreme right-wing forces could be tempted to bring down the Commission, with the radical left ready to support a no-confidence vote. On trade, insiders report that they were already willing to topple the Commission as early as the agreement signed with Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Uruguay, and Paraguay), and The Left there is now reviving that desire for censure that has been lingering ever since.

And the Greens? The Greens have let it be known that the majority of the group is unlikely to vote for a possible censure motion against von der Leyen. However, this does not mean that some members couldn’t back it. In short, the political climate is heating up again. It was Trump and his tariffs that set it all off.